According to the 15-minute chart of BUUU, the Bollinger Bands are currently expanding downward and a bearish Marubozu pattern was observed on September 12, 2025 at 10:45. This suggests that market trend is being driven by sellers, indicating that sellers are currently in control of the market and that the bearish momentum is likely to continue.
UBS and Commerzbank have both raised their gold price forecasts, citing anticipated Federal Reserve easing, dollar weakness, and geopolitical risks. UBS has revised its gold price target to $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2025 and to $3,900 by mid-2026. Commerzbank has also raised its forecast to $3,800 per troy ounce by the end of 2026.
The Swiss bank UBS attributed the upward revision to anticipated Federal Reserve easing and dollar weakness linked to rate cuts and geopolitical risks. UBS expects gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings to exceed 3,900 metric tons by the end of 2025, approaching the previous record of 3,915 tons set in October 2020.
UBS maintains an "Attractive view" on gold and suggests a mid-single-digit percentage allocation to gold in its global asset allocation. The bank highlighted geopolitical concerns and policy differences between the US administration and the Federal Reserve as key factors boosting gold's appeal. UBS also expects central bank purchases of gold to remain robust at about 900 to 950 tons this year.
Commerzbank, on the other hand, has revised its gold price forecast to $3,800 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, up from its earlier projection of $3,600. The bank now expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of 200 basis points by the end of next year, 50 basis points more than previously assumed.
Non-yielding bullion, often considered a safe-haven asset during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, hit a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday and has gained more than 39% year-to-date.
UBS and Commerzbank's upward revisions reflect the ongoing concerns about geopolitical risks and the potential for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. The key risk for gold, according to UBS, is if the Fed is forced to raise rates due to inflation-related upside surprises.
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