Buterin's Sales, Bitcoin's Hesitation, and XRP's Spot Surge: A Flow Analysis

The flow is now largely complete. Vitalik Buterin sold about 19,268 ETH from his "0xfeb" wallet at an average price just above $2,000, totaling nearly $38.7 million. This exceeded his initial plan, as he had previously earmarked 16,384 ETH for privacy projects. The sales were executed through the CoW Protocol in many small trades, a method designed to minimize market impact.

The timing coincided with significant price pressure. Ether's price has dropped 37% over the past month to around $1,900. Buterin's steady outflow added headline weight to a token already struggling, though the decentralized, gradual nature of the trades likely limited immediate slippage. His wallet balance has fallen from about 241,000 ETH at the start of February to 224,000 ETH now.

Proceeds were not held as ETH but were diversified into multiple stablecoins within Ethereum's DeFi ecosystem. This move signals a planned allocation toward long-term projects rather than reactive selling. Even after the outflow, Buterin retains a substantial buffer of about 224,000 ETH, worth over $460 million.

Bitcoin's Failed Breakout: Weak Conviction at $70K

Bitcoin's recent rally hit a wall. The price climbed nearly 5% in 24 hours, briefly touching the $70,000 psychological level before retreating to around $68,300. This hesitation is a clear signal of weak underlying conviction, as the token failed to hold above that key resistance zone.

The flow picture is mixed. On one hand, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are on track to snap a five-week outflow streak, recording net inflows of $1.1 billion over three consecutive days. This suggests renewed U.S. institutional demand. Yet, on the futures side, CME open interest continues to fall, indicating the ETF buying is likely outright long exposure rather than basis trade activity. This divergence between spot and futures flows points to a lack of coordinated, leveraged positioning.

Technical supply remains heavy. Two major clusters of supply sit just above the current price, at $69,400 and $70,600. Until Bitcoin can decisively clear this resistance, the recovery remains incomplete. The Smart Money Index did rise, signaling early positioning, but the 58% drop in trading volume from earlier in February shows participation is thin. Without broader market engagement, a sustained breakout is unlikely.

XRP's Spot Rotation: A $1.1B Inflow Story

The rotation into XRP is now a clear flow story. Spot buying surged 212% between February 23 and 24, with one exchange reporting retail purchase volumes far outpacing selling. This sudden spike in demand broke XRP above the key $1.37 support level, triggering a volume surge that more than doubled the daily average.

This spot activity coincides with a steady institutional buildup. New XRP exchange-traded funds have accumulated about $1.1 billion in net assets since mid-November, a clear rotation from Bitcoin ETFs which are down on a year-to-date basis. The data suggests capital is shifting within the asset class, not fleeing it.

The next test is resistance. A sustained close above the $1.45 level is needed for further upside, as overhead supply remains there. The clean break above $1.37 with high volume is a constructive signal, but the rally must hold to prove the demand is durable.