Burning and Buying: BNB's Scarcity Spark Drives Institutional and On-Chain Momentum

Binance Coin (BNB) is showing signs of potential price recovery, driven by a 20-month low in its circulating supply and rising on-chain demand. As of September 16, 2025, BNB’s circulating supply had fallen to 139.187 million tokens, according to CryptoQuant, marking a continuation of a long-term deflationary trend that began in mid-2024. This decline in supply is attributed to Binance's token-burning initiatives, which have eliminated over 62.8 million BNB since the project's inception, averaging 1.5 million tokens per quarter. The reduced supply increases token scarcity, potentially supporting upward price movements if demand remains steady or increases.

On-chain activity further reinforces this narrative. BNB’s active user base has surged by 1.2% to 10.7 million weekly active users, while the number of chain transactions rose 13.6% week-over-week to 96.83 million. These figures highlight a robust and growing ecosystem. Additionally, spot market demand remains strong, with a positive Buy Sell delta of 3.13k reported at press time, indicating aggressive accumulation. CoinGlass data also shows a negative Spot Netflow of -$6.27 million for BNB over the past three days, reinforcing the trend of increased on-chain buying activity.

Despite these bullish fundamentals, technical indicators suggest short-term caution. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) for BNB has fallen to 27, indicating bearish momentum, while the Stochastic RSI has declined to 79, suggesting potential buyer exhaustion. These metrics imply that while BNB is supported by strong demand and reduced supply, a deeper retracement is possible if selling pressure intensifies. Analysts are watching $883 as a key support level, with $944 as the next potential resistance level if buyers regain control.

The Q2 2025 performance of the BNB Chain further underscores the token’s underlying strength. According to a Messari report, the chain saw a 7.5% increase in BNB’s market capitalization to $92.6 billion, despite a broader market slowdown. While network revenue from gas fees declined by 37.5% due to a reduction in the minimum gas price, transaction volume more than doubled to 9.9 million per day, reflecting increased network usage. BNB Chain also introduced two major protocol upgrades—Lorentz and Maxwell—which reduced block times to sub-second levels, improving scalability and performance.

Stablecoin adoption on the BNB Chain also surged, with a 49.6% quarter-over-quarter increase in stablecoin market cap to $10.5 billion. USDT, USD1, and USDC led the growth, driven by incentive campaigns like the “0-Fee Carnival,” which encouraged stablecoin transfers by waiving gas fees. Decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume on the chain hit $178.22 billion in May, a 50% increase from the previous month and the highest in BNB Chain history. This growth outpaced Ethereum and Solana, which recorded $70.24 billion and $95.72 billion, respectively, during the same period.

Institutional interest in BNB is also on the rise. On August 10, 2025, BNB Network Company (BNC) announced the purchase of 200,000 BNB valued at $160 million, funded by a $500 million private placement. The company has the option to acquire up to $1.25 billion in BNB through warrant-backed access, making it the largest corporate holder of the token. Meanwhile, Rex Osprey submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch a spot BNB staking ETF. These developments highlight growing institutional confidence in BNB and could further drive demand.