Bullish Momentum in Crypto: Whale Activity and Leverage Signal Stronger BTC and ETH Longs

The cryptocurrency market is entering a pivotal phase as on-chain data and macroeconomic shifts converge to signal a potential bull cycle. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, the interplay between whale activity, leveraged positioning, and sentiment divergence is creating a compelling narrative for near-term bullish momentum. This analysis unpacks the mechanics of these dynamics and their implications for investors navigating the 2025–2026 transition.

Bitcoin: Wealth Transfer and Liquidity Resilience

Bitcoin's whale activity in 2025 reflects a textbook "wealth transfer" pattern, where large holders consolidate supply amid retail profit-taking. Mega Whales (10,000+ BTC) accumulated 123,173 BTC during the analyzed period, while mid-tier and retail holders distributed 44,111 BTC. This shift aligns with historical bull cycles, where supply consolidation by deep-pocketed investors stabilizes the market and primes it for upward momentum.

Notably, 2025's liquidity regime differs from prior bear cycles. In 2018 and 2022, whale selling occurred without fresh capital inflows, exacerbating bearish pressure. However, this year, whale selling coincides with fresh capital entering the market, potentially counterbalancing downward trends. Santiment's on-chain data further underscores this: over 102,900 whale transactions exceeding $100,000 and 29,000 exceeding $1 million were recorded in a single week, marking one of the most active periods of the year.

Despite extreme bearish sentiment (Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 11), cyclical indicators like the Puell Multiple and miner capitulation suggest a bottoming process. Bitcoin's consolidation above $88,000, with resistance at $94,253, positions the asset for a breakout if institutional demand accelerates.

Ethereum: Leverage-Driven Aggression and Risk

Ethereum's whale behavior diverges from Bitcoin's, with major wallets aggressively increasing long positions following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. This bullish sentiment is amplified by extreme leverage: Ethereum's leverage ratio on Binance reached 0.579, a record high. While this signals conviction, it also raises liquidation risks in volatile markets.

The contrast between Bitcoin and Ethereum is stark. While Bitcoin's whale transaction volume fell 87% from October to mid-November 2025, Ethereum's whales remain active. A notable example is the movement of 2,400 BTC ($237 million) to Kraken by a single holder, highlighting strategic repositioning. Academic research corroborates the influence of whale activity, showing that Whale Alert data improves Bitcoin volatility predictions and drives short-term price contagion.

Macro Divergence and Market Sentiment

The Federal Reserve's December 2025 rate cut and the Bank of Japan's tightening create a "monetary pincer," complicating global capital flows. This divergence could strain leveraged positions, particularly in Ethereum's highly leveraged ecosystem. However,

Conclusion: Positioning for the Next Bull Cycle

The confluence of whale-driven supply consolidation, leveraged positioning, and macroeconomic shifts paints a nuanced picture. While Bitcoin's liquidity regime and Ethereum's leverage-driven aggression signal a transition toward a bull cycle, investors must remain cautious of liquidation risks and macroeconomic headwinds.

For those with a long-term outlook, the current environment offers a unique opportunity to align with institutional and whale activity. As the market approaches 2026, monitoring on-chain metrics like whale transactions and leverage ratios will remain critical for navigating the next phase of crypto's evolution.