Bulgaria and Turkey to Boost Gas Transit Capacity

In a significant move to bolster Europe's energy security, Bulgaria and Turkey are set to explore options to increase natural gas transit capacity at their joint border. This initiative, announced on April 6, 2025, aims to facilitate greater flows from Russia and the Caspian region to central Europe, a development that could have far-reaching geopolitical and economic implications.

The decision comes as Bulgaria hosts the only active pipeline route for Russian gas flowing to Europe, following Ukraine's termination of its long-term contract with Russia’s Gazprom PJSC. The current pipeline, an extension of TurkStream, transfers about 16 billion cubic meters of gas annually and operates at near-full capacity. The proposed expansion could alleviate some of the energy security concerns for countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and Serbia, which rely heavily on Gazprom for their supplies.

Geopolitical Implications

The potential increase in natural gas transit capacity at the Bulgaria-Turkey border could significantly impact the geopolitical dynamics between Russia, Europe, and the Caspian region. On one hand, it could provide a more stable energy supply for central European countries, potentially easing some of the geopolitical tensions related to energy security. On the other hand, it raises concerns about the potential for more Russian gas to enter European markets, particularly if Turkey establishes a gas trading hub in northwest Turkey. This could allow more Russian gas to bypass Ukraine and reach Europe through Turkey and Bulgaria, potentially exacerbating geopolitical tensions related to the conflict in Ukraine.

Economic Benefits and Risks

For Bulgaria and Turkey, the expansion of natural gas transit capacity presents both potential economic benefits and risks. Bulgaria currently earns substantial revenue from the transit of Russian gas through its territory. In 2024, about 15 billion cubic meters of gas passed through the pipeline, generating significant transit revenue. Expanding the transit capacity could increase these revenues further, as more gas would flow through the pipeline, generating additional transit fees.

However, the expansion also comes with significant infrastructure costs. The initial construction of the Bulgarian part of the pipeline cost 2.15 billion leva (€1.1 billion). Any additional infrastructure needed to increase capacity would add to this cost, potentially straining the budgets of both countries. Additionally, the global gas market is highly volatile, and prices can fluctuate significantly due to geopolitical events, supply disruptions, and changes in demand. This volatility could affect the revenue generated from transit fees and make long-term planning difficult.



Strategic Partnership and Energy Security

Bulgaria's Energy Minister Zhecho Stankov emphasized that Turkey is a strategic partner in fulfilling Bulgaria's priorities related to diversification and energy security. By increasing the transit capacity, Bulgaria can ensure a more stable and diversified energy supply, which is crucial for its energy security. This partnership could also lead to long-term contracts and stable revenue streams.

However, the transit of natural gas is susceptible to geopolitical risks, as seen in the disruption of supplies through Ukraine. The political unrest between Russia and Ukraine has led to disruptions in supply, especially during winter when demand rises. Any geopolitical tensions or conflicts could disrupt the flow of gas, affecting the revenue and stability of the transit system.

Conclusion

The potential increase in natural gas transit capacity at the Bulgaria-Turkey border offers both opportunities and challenges. While it could provide a more stable energy supply for central European countries and generate additional revenue for Bulgaria and Turkey, it also comes with significant infrastructure costs and geopolitical risks. Both countries will need to carefully weigh these factors and develop strategies to mitigate the risks while maximizing the benefits. As the world continues to navigate the complexities of energy security and geopolitical tensions, this initiative could play a crucial role in shaping the future of Europe's energy landscape.