Buenaventura Mining (BVN) Surges 5.95% on Earnings Beat and San Gabriel Momentum

Summary
• Buenaventura Mining (BVN) surges 5.95% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $44.67
• Q4 2025 net income jumps 80% YoY to $1.83B, driven by $157.3M asset sale and $112M EBITDA growth
• San Gabriel gold project nears 99% completion, with 48,055-ounce 2026 production guidance
• RSI at 72.75 (overbought) and MACD histogram rising, signaling short-term bullish momentum

Buenaventura Mining’s stock is trading at its highest level in over a decade, fueled by a blockbuster Q4 earnings report and critical progress at its San Gabriel gold project. The 5.95% intraday surge reflects strong investor confidence in management’s ability to execute its growth strategy, despite operational headwinds at existing mines. With technical indicators flashing bullish signals and options volatility spiking, the stock is now at a pivotal juncture for traders and long-term investors.

Earnings Beat and San Gabriel Ramp-Up Drive Sharp Rally
Buenaventura’s 5.95% intraday surge stems from a combination of a 80% YoY net income increase to $1.83B, driven by a $157.3M asset sale and a 88% EBITDA jump to $112M. The San Gabriel gold project, now 99% complete, is positioned to become the company’s flagship asset, with 48,055-ounce 2026 production guidance. Management’s decision to raise dividends to 40% of net income and the $98M Cerro Verde dividend inflow post-Q4 further bolster investor sentiment. While lower gold and copper output at existing mines like Orcopampa and Tambomayo weighed on production, the strategic focus on San Gabriel’s ramp-up and disciplined capital allocation has offset these concerns.

Mining Sector Mixed as Freeport-McMoRan Drags Down
The broader mining sector remains fragmented, with Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) down 0.70% on concerns over copper cost inflation and operational delays. While Buenaventura’s gold and silver production guidance aligns with sector trends, its earnings growth outpaces peers due to asset sales and San Gabriel’s near-term output. The company’s 20.8x dynamic P/E also trails FCX’s 25x, suggesting undervaluation relative to its stronger cash flow generation and lower leverage (0.22x vs. FCX’s 0.35x).

Bullish Setup: Leverage Options and ETFs for Short-Term Gains
• 200-day average: 23.54 (well below current price)
• RSI: 72.75 (overbought)
• MACD: 1.48 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 43.58, above 34.05 lower band

Buenaventura’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with key resistance at $44.67 (52-week high) and support at $37.83 (20-day MA). The 72.75 RSI indicates overbought conditions, but the rising MACD histogram and strong volume suggest conviction. For leveraged exposure, consider the BVN20260320C45 call option (strike $45, 55.80% IV, 24.21% leverage ratio) or BVN20260320C43 (strike $43, 59.67% IV, 15.23% leverage ratio).

Top Option 1: BVN20260320C45
• Code: BVN20260320C45
• Type: Call
• Strike: $45
• Expiration: 2026-03-20
• IV: 55.80% (moderate)
• Leverage: 24.21% (high)
• Delta: 0.4385 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0760 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0660 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 9,470 (liquid)
• Payoff (5% upside): $1.74 per contract (43.58 → 45.76)
• Why: High leverage and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario, with gamma ensuring responsiveness to price swings.

Top Option 2: BVN20260320C43
• Code: BVN20260320C43
• Type: Call
• Strike: $43
• Expiration: 2026-03-20
• IV: 59.67% (high)
• Leverage: 15.23% (moderate)
• Delta: 0.5693 (strong sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0853 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0615 (good price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 1,991 (liquid)
• Payoff (5% upside): $2.74 per contract (43.58 → 45.76)
• Why: Strong delta and high IV position this for a breakout above $43, with gamma amplifying gains as the stock rises.

Action: Aggressive bulls should target the BVN20260320C45 call into a break above $44.67. Conservative traders may use the BVN20260320C43 for a 5% upside play, with a stop-loss below $42.13 (intraday low).

Backtest Buenaventura Mining Stock Performance
The backtest of BVN's performance following a 6% intraday increase from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 55.35%, the 10-Day win rate is 59.78%, and the 30-Day win rate is 69.19%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 11.52%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that there is potential for significant gains if the positive momentum continues.

Seize the Momentum: San Gabriel-Driven Bull Run Unfolds
Buenaventura’s 5.95% surge is a catalyst-driven breakout, fueled by earnings strength and San Gabriel’s near-term output. With technicals aligned for a continuation and options volatility spiking, the stock is primed for a test of its 52-week high. Investors should monitor the $44.67 level for a potential breakout, while the sector leader Freeport-McMoRan’s 0.70% decline highlights the importance of asset-specific fundamentals. For those seeking leverage, the BVN20260320C45 call offers a high-reward setup if the stock holds above $42.13. This is a high-conviction trade for the next 10 days, with San Gabriel’s ramp-up and dividend policy changes likely to drive further momentum.