US Budget Surplus Reaches $27 Billion in June, Beating Expectations

The US federal government unexpectedly reported a surplus of $27.0B in June, compared to a $41.5B deficit expected and a $316.0B shortfall in the prior month. The surplus was driven by a significant increase in tariff receipts. The Treasury Department's monthly statement was released on Friday.

The U.S. federal government unexpectedly reported a surplus of $27.0 billion in June, compared to a projected deficit of $41.5 billion and a $316.0 billion shortfall in the prior month. This surprising turn of events was driven by a significant increase in tariff receipts, according to the Treasury Department's monthly statement released on Friday [1].

The June surplus brought the fiscal year-to-date deficit down to $1.34 trillion, a 1% decline from the same period a year ago. This marks the first June surplus since 2017, during President Donald Trump's first term. The Treasury Department attributed the surplus to a 13% increase in receipts compared to the same month last year, with outlays down 7% [1].

Customs duties totaled about $27 billion for the month, up from $23 billion in May and a 301% gain from June 2024. On an annual basis, tariff collections have totaled $113 billion, or 86% more than a year ago. The increase in tariff receipts is a significant factor in the unexpected surplus, as it helped bridge the gap between revenues and outlays [1].

However, the Treasury Department also noted that the month benefited from calendar adjustments. Without these adjustments, the deficit would have been $70 billion. This indicates that the surplus may be more a result of timing rather than a fundamental change in fiscal policy [1].

The June surplus comes amidst persistently high Treasury yields, which posed a challenge for federal finances. Net interest on the $36 trillion national debt totaled $84 billion in June, down slightly from May but still higher than any other category with the exception of Social Security. For the year, net interest is at $749 billion, with total interest payments projected at $1.2 trillion for the full fiscal year [1].

President Trump's "big beautiful" spending bill, which made its way through Congress earlier this month, is expected to add about $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office's projections [1].

The unexpected June surplus highlights the complexities of U.S. fiscal policy and the impact of tariff receipts on government finances. As the fiscal year draws to a close, the Treasury Department will continue to monitor revenues and outlays to ensure that the government remains on track to meet its fiscal goals.

References:
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/11/treasury-posts-unexpected-surplus-in-june-as-tariff-receipts-surge.html
[2] https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1350972-us-treasury-posts-unexpected-surplus-in-june-as
[3] https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2025/jul/11/federal-government-has-surprise-27-billion/