BUD Plunges 2.9% as Institutional Buying Fails to Stem Short-Term Selloff – What’s Brewing Next?

Summary
• Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) shares cross below 200-day moving average at $60.49, trading as low as $59.48
• First Manhattan CO. LLC. boosts stake by 23.3%, now owning 437,077 shares valued at $26.9M
• Analysts remain split, with average target price of $71.50 despite 2.9% intraday decline

Amid a volatile session, BUD’s 2.9% drop has sparked questions about the sustainability of recent institutional optimism and technical breakdowns. The stock’s intraday range of $59.48–$60.32 highlights a fragile short-term trend, while sector peers like Molson Coors (TAP) also retreat. With earnings above expectations but revenue softness lingering, the path forward hinges on whether this selloff is a correction or a deeper shift.

200DMA Breakdown Sparks Technical Jitters
BUD’s intraday price of $59.565 has fallen below its 200-day moving average of $60.49, triggering algorithmic selling pressure and bearish momentum. The stock’s short-term bearish trend, confirmed by the Kline pattern, aligns with declining volume and a MACD crossover below the signal line (-0.64 vs. -0.89). While First Manhattan’s 23.3% stake increase signals long-term confidence, the immediate technical breakdown—coupled with a 52-week low of $45.94—has amplified risk-off sentiment. Analysts note that the 50-day moving average ($65.36) remains a distant target for bulls, but near-term resistance at $61.91 (Bollinger Middle Band) appears unattainable.

Brewers Sector Sags as TAP Trails BUD’s Slide
The Brewers sector, led by Molson Coors (TAP), mirrors BUD’s bearish momentum, with TAP down 0.91% intraday. While BUD’s decline is tied to technical breakdowns, TAP’s selloff reflects broader sector concerns over U.S. beer consumption trends and margin pressures. Both stocks face similar challenges: BUD’s 2.1% quarterly revenue decline and TAP’s recent volume struggles highlight structural headwinds in the alcohol industry. However, BUD’s institutional buying activity contrasts with TAP’s lack of major stake changes, suggesting divergent investor sentiment within the sector.

Bearish Options Playbook: Leveraging BUD’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: $60.49 (below current price)
• RSI: 49.85 (neutral)
• Bollinger Bands: $59.78 (lower) vs. $64.06 (upper)
• MACD: -0.64 (bearish)

BUD’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias, with key support at $59.78 and resistance at $61.91. The stock’s 13.7% turnover rate and 0.79 beta indicate moderate liquidity and defensive positioning. For options traders, the BUD20250912P57 and BUD20250919P57 contracts stand out.

• BUD20250912P57 (Put, $57 strike, 9/12 expiry):
- IV: 24.10% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.125 (sensitive to price moves)
- Theta: -0.0036 (slow time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0866 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 150 (liquid)
- Leverage: 397.23% (high reward potential)
- Payoff (5% downside): $2.43 per contract. This put benefits from BUD’s near-term volatility and offers a 397% leverage ratio, ideal for capitalizing on a potential $57.50 support test.

• BUD20250919P57 (Put, $57 strike, 9/19 expiry):
- IV: 23.00% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.172 (strong bearish exposure)
- Theta: -0.0051 (balanced decay)
- Gamma: 0.0863 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: 3,806 (high liquidity)
- Leverage: 212.80% (attractive risk-reward)
- Payoff (5% downside): $2.43 per contract. This longer-dated put offers higher liquidity and a 212% leverage ratio, positioning it as a core play for a sustained breakdown below $59.78.

Aggressive bears may consider BUD20250912P57 into a $57.50 test, while BUD20250919P57 provides a safer, more liquid alternative for a deeper correction.

Backtest Anheuser-Busch InBev Stock Performance

BUD at Crossroads: Break Below $59.78 Could Signal Sector Rotation
BUD’s 2.9% drop has exposed a fragile technical foundation, with the 200-day MA acting as a critical psychological barrier. While institutional buying and a $71.50 analyst target price offer long-term optimism, near-term risks lean bearish. The stock’s ability to hold above $59.78 will determine whether this is a correction or a deeper trend reversal. Sector leader TAP’s -0.91% move underscores broader industry pressures, suggesting investors should monitor both technical levels and sector rotation. For now, BUD20250919P57 offers a high-liquidity, high-leverage play on a potential $57 support test. Watch for a breakdown below $59.78 or TAP’s lead in sector rotation to dictate next steps.