Bubblemaps/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-03

• Price declined 24 hours, closing near the session low amid bearish momentum.
• High volatility in the last 6 hours, with sharp pullbacks below 0.0345.
• Volume increased in the final 12 hours, but notional turnover showed divergence.
• MACD and RSI both signaled bearish momentum, with RSI approaching oversold levels.
• Bollinger Bands tightened earlier in the session, followed by a break below the lower band.

Market Summary

BMTUSDT opened at 0.0372 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0378, and closed at 0.0344 by the same time on 2025-11-03. The 24-hour session saw a total volume of 39,595,811.5 and a turnover of $13,745,005.99. Price action showed a clear bearish bias, with a late-session breakdown below key support levels. Volatility increased sharply in the overnight hours, and volume picked up during the decline, suggesting distribution.

Structure & Formations

The price declined in a broad bearish channel over the past 24 hours, forming multiple inside bars and bearish engulfing patterns. A key support level was tested near 0.0345, with price breaking below it on heavy volume. A 0.0367-0.0373 horizontal resistance range failed to hold during the afternoon hours, triggering a sell-off. The formation of a "hanging man" and "bearish engulfing" patterns near 0.0360 and 0.0374 signaled increased bearish conviction.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for the majority of the session, confirming short-term bearish momentum. Daily MA 50, 100, and 200 were all above current price levels, suggesting further bearish bias for the longer term. RSI fell into oversold territory below 30 for the last 6 hours, while MACD remained negative with a narrowing histogram, signaling potential exhaustion in the short-term decline.

Volatile Compression and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands experienced a period of contraction between 22:00 and 03:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as volatility spiked and price broke below the lower band. This breakout below the lower band, combined with increasing volume, suggests a continuation of the bearish trend is likely in the near term. Price has since remained within a tight range, indicating a potential pause or consolidation.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Turnover increased significantly in the last 12 hours, particularly after 05:00 ET, with a notable divergence between volume and price. While volume was relatively average, turnover spiked as price dropped below key support, suggesting aggressive selling or hedging activity. The divergence raises the possibility of a bearish continuation, but could also signal a short-term exhaustion of sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 0.0378-0.0344 swing low and high, the 38.2% level sits at 0.0364 and the 61.8% level at 0.0354. Price is currently near the 61.8% level, which has historically acted as a minor support. A close below this level would increase the probability of a move toward the next target at 0.0340–0.0335.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest for BMTUSDT could focus on the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern as a sell signal, triggered at the close of the engulfing candle. The exit rule would be to close the short position at the first of the next three days whose low is lower than the entry-day low, with the trade exiting at that day’s close. This method would capture early momentum without waiting for the full 3-day period. Using daily OHLC data, the strategy would be tested for its effectiveness in capturing bearish moves on volume and momentum confirmation, particularly during periods of diverging volume and price action observed in this 24-hour window.