BTCUSDT Market Overview: 2025-09-04 24-Hour Analysis

• BTC/USDT dropped from $112,357 to $109,456 over 24 hours, with a bearish close near the session low.
• MACD turned negative, RSI entered oversold territory, and volume surged in the final 6 hours.
• Bollinger Bands tightened early, then expanded with a sharp decline, suggesting increased volatility.
• Fibonacci levels at $110,200 and $109,100 offered mixed support, with volume diverging at key retracements.
• Turnover hit $1.35B, with volume skewed heavily in the final 8 hours of the session.

BTC/USDT opened at $112,185 on 2025-09-03 at 12:00 ET, peaking at $112,485 before closing at $109,519 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 2,623.35 BTC and turnover reached $286.95M, reflecting heightened volatility and bearish sentiment late in the session.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below key support at $111,700 and $110,200, with a bearish engulfing pattern visible near $112,000–$111,700. A potential double-bottom formation was attempted between $111,700 and $111,400 but failed to hold. A long-tailed candle at $110,464–$109,456 showed sharp bearish momentum, suggesting exhaustion in the short term. A potential 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $110,200 provided partial support but failed to reverse the trend. A doji formed near $111,600, indicating indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed bearishly below the price, confirming a short-term downtrend. The daily chart showed BTC trading well below its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong bearish bias across all timeframes. The 15-minute fast crossover suggests a continuation of the bearish trend in the short term, but a potential bounce could occur if price holds above $109,400.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned negative and the histogram expanded downward in the last 6 hours, signaling strong bearish momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30, but has not yet shown a convincing reversal. A divergence between RSI and price in the last 2 hours suggests a potential rebound could be near, though confirmation will require a bullish crossover and a sustained close above $109,500.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted from $112,300 to $111,600 before expanding with the sharp sell-off, indicating a period of consolidation followed by a breakout to the downside. Price is currently near the lower band at $109,456, a level that often triggers bounces. A sustained break below $109,000 would signal increased bearish conviction and potential for further downward movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highly skewed toward the end of the session, with 63% of the total volume occurring in the final 8 hours. Turnover spiked during the last 6 hours, with a total of $157.5M in notional value traded between $110,500 and $109,400. This suggests large institutional selling pressure and a lack of buyers at lower levels. A divergence between volume and price was observed near $111,700, where volume increased but price failed to hold, signaling weak support.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% retracement at $110,200 and 61.8% at $109,100 provided mixed levels of support. While $110,200 briefly held, the 61.8% level was broken decisively in the final 4 hours. This suggests that the 61.8% Fibonacci level is a key target for the next leg lower if bearish momentum continues. A bounce may occur near $109,100, but confirmation will be needed to suggest a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering short positions at the breakout of the lower Bollinger Band with a stop above the 20SMA and taking profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. This strategy would have captured the recent selloff from $112,357 to $109,456 with a 2.6% risk and a 2.3% reward. Given the current bearish momentum and oversold RSI, this strategy may remain effective if BTCUSDT remains below $110,500. However, a break above this level could trigger a false signal, highlighting the need for trailing stops and volatility filters.