BTCMXN Breaks Out Below 1,206k Fib Support — But Buyers Fight Back at 1,170k

Summary
• BTCMXN formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 1,170k-1,190k with strong volume confirmation.
• RSI signaled oversold levels at 1,165k before a sharp rebound into overbought territory.
• Volatility expanded in early ET, followed by a contraction ahead of 12:00 ET close.
• Price tested the 20-period MA four times, with the last close above the 20 MA.
• A key 38.2% Fib retracement level at 1,206k appears to have capped early bearish pressure.

The BTCMXN pair opened at 1,203,965 MXN at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at 1,173,491 MXN at 12:00 ET today. The 24-hour range extended from 1,165k to 1,239k. Total trading volume was 2.19 BTC, with notional turnover of 2.65 million MXN.

Structure & Key Levels

Price action displayed a distinct bearish reversal pattern in the early morning ET phase, followed by a test of the 1.618 Fib level at 1,165k which held as support. A 38.2% retracement at 1,206k appears to have contained the initial selling pressure. A bullish engulfing candle formed in the late ET period as price rebounded off 1,170k, suggesting possible short-term buying interest.

Momentum and Volatility

The RSI moved from oversold territory (1,165k) to overbought conditions (1,220k), signaling a broad reversal. MACD showed bearish divergence during the late ET decline, but a positive crossover followed near 1,170k. Volatility expanded in the early ET session, with Bollinger Bands widening to 45,000 MXN. The price closed near the upper band, suggesting a potential continuation to the 1,240k level.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish break below 1,206k and remained elevated during the rebound from 1,170k, confirming the formation of a potential base. Turnover was strongest during the 17:00–21:00 ET window and during the 07:00–09:00 ET rebound. Price and turnover were aligned during these periods, suggesting strong conviction in both downward and upward moves.

Forward-Looking Outlook and Risk

The formation of a bullish engulfing pattern near 1,170k suggests short-term buyers may test the 1,200k psychological level. However, the 20-period MA at 1,195k and 50-period MA at 1,210k could pose near-term resistance. A break below 1,165k would confirm a bearish setup for the next 24 hours. Investors should monitor order flow and divergence in the RSI.