BTC.com's Binance Flows Decline 98% as Miners Expect Bitcoin Price Surge

The BTC.com mining pool has become a dominant player in directing Bitcoin miner flows to Binance, accounting for nearly 98% of all BTC transfers from miners to the exchange. This trend provides valuable insights into the strategic behavior of miners, as highlighted in the latest report by CryptoQuant. Historically, BTC.com has increased its outflows to Binance during periods of rising Bitcoin prices, indicating a pattern of strategic profit-taking at local market peaks. Conversely, when flows to Binance decrease, it suggests that miners are more confident in holding their Bitcoin, anticipating further price appreciation and reducing selling pressure.

Despite Bitcoin's recent trading above $100,000, BTC.com's flows to Binance have notably declined. This observation implies that miners are expecting additional price increases and are thus less inclined to sell their holdings, potentially supporting a more sustained rally in the market. The behavior of miners, often considered among the most astute players in the market, provides critical signals about the broader market cycle.

A closer examination of network-level data reveals a seasonal trend in Bitcoin's hash rate. The hash rate, which measures the computational power of the Bitcoin network, has shown significant volatility this year. It reached a peak of 950 EH/s in mid-June before dropping to 827 EH/s, a 13% decline. This pattern of surges followed by sharp corrections has been consistent, with seasonal factors playing a significant role. For instance, around half of the mining operations in the United States are centered in Texas, where heatwaves and energy curtailments during the summer often lead to temporary dips in the hash rate.

The recent price milestones of Bitcoin have not translated into stronger on-chain transaction fees. According to the latest observations by Digital Mining Solutions, fees have consistently accounted for less than 1% of the total block reward and have failed to offset the halving-induced subsidy cuts. This weak fee environment means that miner revenue, or hash price, is closely tied to Bitcoin's price movements. When Bitcoin's price falls, the hash price drops nearly in sync, with minimal fee support to cushion the decline. This dynamic underscores the importance of Bitcoin's price in sustaining miner profitability and the overall health of the network.