BTC -5.47% as Whale Activities and ETF Outflows Drive Market Weakness

Whale 0x5D2 Dominates BTC Short Position Amid $29.8M Unrealized Profit

A prominent on-chain player known as the "Ultimate Bear" (0x5D2) continues to shape Bitcoin’s short-term price trajectory with its latest moves. As of November 24, 2025, the whale maintains a 20x-leveraged BTC short position, originally opened on May 9, with a current notional value of $106 million. The position is averaging in at $111,500 and has yielded an unrealized profit of $29.78 million.

The whale has strategically adjusted its take-profit zone to $67,000, down from a prior target range of $89,000–$91,000. This shift indicates a growing bearish bias as Bitcoin remains under pressure, having fallen 5.47% over the past seven days. A key risk metric has also emerged: the estimated liquidation price has dropped to $92,000 from $105,700 over ten days. This means approximately 5.75% of the position is now vulnerable to liquidation if BTC continues its downward trend.

The whale has also been actively managing its position. Since October 11, it has partially closed 40% of the short for a realized gain of $5.17 million. Additionally, $34.09 million in margin has been withdrawn from the position this month, with $40 million transferred to a Binance wallet. This activity underscores a disciplined approach to risk management and profit realization.

Another Whale Adds Pressure with $87.58M Short Position

A second whale, referred to as the “Pension Fund” by users, has also entered the bearish camp. In the past three hours, the whale initiated a 3x-leveraged BTC short position valued at $87.67 million. With a liquidation price set at $119,000, the position ranks as the second-largest BTC short on Hyperliquid, just behind the 0x5D2 position. This move signals growing bearish sentiment among large players, further pressuring BTC during a period of broader market weakness.

ETF Outflows and Institutional Shifts Compound BTC’s Downtrend

Bitcoin’s recent underperformance is also being driven by a sharp shift in institutional positioning. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $3.5 billion in net outflows during November, marking the worst monthly performance since the ETFs were launched in early 2024. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which holds the majority of the ETF sector’s assets, has accounted for $2.2 billion of these redemptions.

The outflows are reinforcing a self-reinforcing sell-off dynamic: for every $1 billion in ETF outflows, Bitcoin’s price tends to drop by approximately 3.4%. This has been a key factor in BTC’s recent 21.04% drop over the past month. Meanwhile, institutional investors are rebalancing their crypto portfolios, with $5.4 billion in MicroStrategy (MSTR) holdings liquidated in Q3 2025 as managers pivot to direct BTC exposure via spot ETFs and custody solutions.

Market Volatility Intensifies Amid Record CEX Outflows

Exchange on-chain data further highlights the scale of the selloff. Centralized exchanges (CEXs) have seen a net outflow of 29,194.49 BTC in the past seven days, with Bitmex, Coinbase Pro, and Gemini leading the outflow volume. Conversely, Binance has recorded a net inflow of 16,353.35 BTC, signaling a potential shift in where liquidity is being concentrated.

Conclusion: Bearish Momentum Unlikely to Subside Without Structural Buying

The convergence of whale-driven shorting, ETF outflows, and CEX liquidity shifts has created a perfect storm for Bitcoin’s current price weakness. While technical indicators suggest BTC could test $85,000 as a next key support level, the absence of strong institutional buying or a macro-driven reversal in risk appetite means further downward pressure remains a distinct possibility. Without a structural shift in market dynamics, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a bearish consolidation phase in the near term.