BTC +1.16% Amid Mixed Medium-Term Trends

On OCT 24 2025, BTC rose by 1.16% within 24 hours to reach $111,234.37. Over the past week, the coin climbed 2.49%, while over the last 30 days it fell by 2.37%. Year-to-date, BTC has gained 18.99%, reflecting resilience in the face of intermittent volatility.

The current price action aligns with a broader pattern of consolidation following sharp corrections earlier this year. Analysts note that the 24-hour increase suggests short-term bullish momentum, though it remains to be seen whether the coin can sustain this upward trend without breaking through key resistance levels. The recent one-month decline indicates that the market is still processing mixed signals, with bearish sentiment persisting despite the recent positive move.

Technical indicators, including the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, show BTC has remained above both for the past several weeks. This suggests a potential shift toward a more structured upward trend, though the lack of strong follow-through buying could indicate ongoing hesitation among traders. On the weekly chart, the price has moved into a defined range, with the upper bound representing a critical psychological level that, if breached, could trigger renewed buying interest.

Investors are closely watching for confirmation of a breakout, as such a move could validate the recent strength and signal the start of a new upward phase. A sustained break above this range might attract institutional buyers and lead to broader market participation. Conversely, a failure to push higher could reignite bearish sentiment and lead to renewed testing of key support levels.

The market’s reaction to BTC’s price movement is also being influenced by broader macroeconomic expectations. While the immediate focus is on technical patterns and on-chain activity, the absence of major regulatory or macroeconomic news has allowed the coin to trade largely on its own fundamentals in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A recent backtest analysis attempted to evaluate the performance of BTC following days with a price surge of 15% or more. The test spanned from January 1, 2022, to October 24, 2025, and encountered a technical limitation due to the scarcity of such high-magnitude events. Specifically, the system identified at most one trading day during this period where BTC’s close increased by 15% or more, preventing the calculation of dispersion-based statistics like standard deviation and confidence intervals.

To proceed, analysts proposed alternative approaches: manually computing the performance of the specific event, adjusting the threshold to include more frequent price movements (e.g., 10% or 7% gains), or using a strategy-based backtest that simulates a buy signal after a 15% surge and tracks performance over a defined holding period. Each method offers different insights: the first provides raw data on a unique event, the second enables broader statistical analysis, and the third mimics real-world trading behavior.

These strategies highlight the need for flexibility in evaluating BTC’s historical performance in response to sharp price movements. They also underscore the rarity of extreme daily swings in BTC, which may reflect a more mature and structured market structure compared to earlier periods.