Broadway's Next Golden Ticket: Betting on Tony Nominees with Scalable Success

The 2025 Tony Awards, set to crown the best of Broadway's 2024-2025 season, offer more than just a celebration of art—they're a roadmap for investors seeking undervalued opportunities in a sector primed for post-award booms. Among this year's nominees, Buena Vista Social Club, Death Becomes Her, and Maybe Happy Ending stand out as top-tier contenders with the structural advantages to deliver outsized returns. Here's why these shows—and their production companies—are worth watching closely.

The ROI of Tony Momentum

Historically, Tony-winning shows generate exponential revenue through ticket sales, touring, licensing, and even media rights. Consider Hamilton, which saw its original cast album sales surge 300% post-win, while its global touring revenue reached $1.2 billion by 2020. Similarly, The Lion King's licensing deals and long-running runs in cities like Tokyo and London have fueled decades of profit. This year's nominees are poised to follow suit—if they win.

Why These Three Shows Are Standouts

1. Buena Vista Social Club (10 Nominations)
   Based on the Grammy-winning Cuban music project, this musical boasts a culturally resonant brand and a producer roster including Universal Theatrical Group (a division of Universal Music Group) and Sony Music Entertainment. Its 10 nominations, including for music and scenic design, signal broad critical appeal—a hallmark of scalable hits.

Investors can indirectly tap into its success via Comcast, which owns Universal. The stock's steady rise (+12% YTD) reflects growing confidence in its entertainment divisions.

1. Death Becomes Her (10 Nominations)
   A dark comedy with twin leading ladies (Megan Hilty and Jennifer Simard), this show has already drawn comparisons to Chicago for its star power and versatility. Its producers include Steven Spielberg and Jason Blum, known for high-profit models like Stranger Things. Its 10 nominations, including for costume design, suggest it's a front-runner for the Best Musical win—a title that typically boosts licensing demand.

Live Nation's theater portfolio, including the Shubert Organization's Broadway venues, benefits from hit shows' prolonged runs. LYV's stock, up 18% since 2023, hints at investor optimism in live entertainment's recovery.

1. Maybe Happy Ending (10 Nominations)
   Starring Darren Criss as a producer-performer, this show's 10 nominations—including for lead actor—position it as a fan favorite. Its music by Will Aronson and Hue Park offers a modern, relatable soundtrack ripe for streaming and touring.

While not directly tied to the show, Apple's expansion into live events (e.g., Hamilton's Apple+ release) suggests tech giants are eyeing Broadway's digital potential. A win here could push Maybe Happy Ending into similar streaming deals.

The Undervalued Play to Watch: Purpose (6 Nominations)

Branden Jacobs-Jenkins' existential comedy, with dual leading actors (Jon Michael Hill and Harry Lennix), offers a lower-risk, high-reward bet. Its smaller budget and minimalist design (winning a nod for scenic design) make it ideal for regional tours and international licensing—a strategy that boosted August: Osage County's profits post-Tony.

The Investment Playbook

1. Direct Equity: Seek private equity stakes in production companies like Universal Theatrical Group or Sony's Broadway ventures. Platforms like EquityMultiple or Broadway.com's investment arms occasionally offer such opportunities.
2. Real Estate: Invest in theater operators like the Shubert Organization (via proxies like LYV) or real estate trusts with Broadway holdings. A hit show's extended run directly boosts venue value.
3. Streaming Partnerships: Look for tech firms (Apple, Disney) expanding into live theater distribution—wins here could trigger licensing deals that boost their stock.

Risks and Caveats

• Touring Costs: High expenses for international tours could eat into margins unless demand justifies premium pricing.
• Cultural Saturation: Overexposure of a hit show could dilute its brand, as seen with The Phantom of the Opera's prolonged runs.
• Union Conflicts: Labor disputes (e.g., Actors' Equity Association strikes) could disrupt touring schedules.

Final Take

The 2025 Tony Awards are a golden opportunity to back productions with proven creative and commercial DNA. Buena Vista Social Club, Death Becomes Her, and Maybe Happy Ending offer a mix of cultural relevance, star power, and scalable models. Investors should prioritize plays and musicals with low production costs, strong licensing potential, and ties to publicly traded entities. The next Hamilton is out there—look for it on June 8.