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Here’s the deal: BRK.B is dancing on the edge of a breakout. The options market is screaming bullish, but the block trades tell a subtler story. Let’s unpack why this stock is a high-probability play—and where the risks lie.
The Call-Put Imbalance and Block Trade SignalsThe options chain for BRK.B is a goldmine of insight. This Friday’s top OTM calls are clustered at $500 (OI: 3,579), $510 (OI: 992), and $505 (OI: 677), while puts dominate at $490 (OI: 3,487) and $485 (OI: 2,195). The put/call ratio of 0.6 (calls > puts) isn’t just a number—it’s a crowd of traders betting on a rally. But here’s the twist: the block trades are all puts. Four of the top five block trades involve puts expiring in September 2025, with massive volumes (440–480 contracts) at strikes like $525 and $520. This isn’t retail noise; it’s institutional hedging. Think of it like a storm cloud: the market wants up, but big players are bracing for a pullback.
News That Could Tip the ScalesWarren Buffett’s Q3 moves are the elephant in the room. The record $381.7 billion cash pile and his yen bond issuance signal a wait-and-see stance. But here’s the kicker: Zacks upgraded BRK.B to “Buy,” and Buffett’s annual letter (due Monday) could sway sentiment. If he hints at aggressive buybacks or acquisitions, the $500 call could ignite. Conversely, Amazon’s regulatory complaint against Berkshire’s utility arm adds a wildcard—could it pressure the stock if energy profits dip? The news isn’t a red flag, but it’s a reminder that even Buffett’s fortress isn’t immune to sector-specific risks.
Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls, Puts, and Price LevelsLet’s get tactical. For the bullish bet, target the $500 call expiring this Friday (OI: 3,579). Why? The strike is just 0.6% above the current price, and the high open interest suggests a liquidity sweet spot. If BRK.B breaks above its intraday high of $500.16, this call could run. Set a stop-loss below $493.35 (intraday low) to protect against a surprise dip.
For risk management, buy the $490 put expiring this Friday (OI: 3,487). It’s a defensive play—price is already testing the Bollinger Band middle at $488.03, and the put gives you downside cushion if the block traders are right. If you’re going long the stock, consider entry near $493.35 (intraday low) with a target at $505 (resistance from the 30D support/resistance zone). A break above $500.16 would validate the bullish case, while a drop below $488.03 could trigger a test of the lower Bollinger Band at $474.85.
Volatility on the HorizonThe next 72 hours are critical. Buffett’s letter could be the spark that turns this rally into a fire—or a dampener if he sounds cautious. Meanwhile, the $500 call and $490 put form a classic risk-rebalance setup: you’re betting on upside with a safety net. The block trades add a layer of intrigue—those puts might not be a bearish signal but a hedge against a market correction. Either way, BRK.B is at a crossroads. The options data says up, but the news and block trades whisper caution. That tension is where opportunity lives. Play it smart: short-term calls for the pop, puts for the floor, and keep an eye on Buffett’s pen. The market’s watching—and so should you.

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