BRK.B at Crossroads: Call OI at $510 Signals Bullish Potential Amid Buffett Health Concerns—Here’s How to Play It

• Warren Buffett’s hospitalization and SEC scrutiny clash with $10B green energy bets and Q4 earnings beats.
• Options data shows 22,089 open calls at $510 (this Friday’s expiry) vs. 5,726 puts at $490—hinting at a price war for direction.
• Stock trades near 50-day support at $494.41, with RSI at 56.47 suggesting oversold relief could spark a rebound.

Here’s the thing: BRK.B is stuck in a tug-of-war between Buffett’s health drama and its long-term value plays. The options market isn’t neutral—it’s leaning bullish, but the stock’s technicals warn of a fragile setup. Let’s break it down.

The Call-Put Imbalance: A Battle for $500

The options chain screams clarity. For this Friday’s expiry, 22,089 contracts are open on the $510 call—nearly four times the volume of the top put at $490. That’s not just noise; it’s a crowd betting the stock will snap above $500. Why? Because the 30-day moving average (500.62) and Bollinger Middle Band (500.18) are both in play. If BRK.B closes above $500 this week, those calls could ignite.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $490 strike has 5,726 open contracts, anchoring downside risk. If the stock dips below $493.34 (today’s low), that level becomes a magnet. And with Buffett’s health still a wildcard, the puts act as insurance for a potential selloff. No whale trades today, but the OI distribution suggests retail and institutional players are prepping for a breakout—or a crash.

News That Could Tip the Scales

Buffett’s hospitalization is the elephant in the room. While the company insists he’s stable, the market reacted instantly—3% pre-market drop. Succession fears are real, but Berkshire’s Q4 earnings (12% revenue growth) and $5B buyback show the machine keeps grinding. The new cyber insurance product and AI logistics deal with TechCorp? Those are long-term value plays, not short-term catalysts.

The SEC inquiry adds friction, but it’s a sideshow unless regulators dig deep. For now, the $10B green energy push and $3B retail contract are the real drivers. These moves signal Buffett’s team is doubling down on growth—even if he’s sidelined.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bold, Puts for the Pragmatic

If you’re bullish: Buy BRK.B20260116C510 (this Friday’s $510 call). The stock needs to close above $500 to justify this bet, but the 22,089 OI suggests liquidity. Target a $5-7 move to $515–$520 by expiry.

If you’re cautious: Buy BRK.B20260123P490 (next Friday’s $490 put). The stock’s 200-day range (494.42–504.30) means a dip below $493.34 could trigger a test of $490. This gives you two weeks to play it safe.

For the stock: Consider entry near $494.41 (lower Bollinger Band) if support holds. Target $500.18 (middle band) as a first hurdle. If it breaks $493.34, exit or hedge with the $490 put.

Volatility on the Horizon

Berkshire’s story isn’t just about Buffett’s health—it’s about whether the company can execute its long-term bets without him. The options market is pricing in a $500 pivot point, but the stock’s 56.47 RSI suggests it’s not far from a bounce. Play this like a chess game: the calls at $510 are your queen move, the puts at $490 your defense. Either way, the next two weeks will tell if this is a temporary blip or a leadership inflection point.