Brinker International Shares Surge on Record Volume as Earnings Drama Looms with 330th Market Activity Rank

Brinker International (EAT) rose 1.83% on August 12, with a trading volume of $320 million, marking a 34.82% increase from the prior day and ranking 330th in market activity. The stock is set to report Q4 2025 earnings on August 13, with analysts forecasting revenue of $1.42 billion and EPS of $2.27, while full-year 2025 estimates stand at $5.34 billion in revenue and $8.45 EPS. Revenue and earnings estimates have risen over the past 90 days, reflecting improved expectations for both the current and next fiscal year.

Analysts project a "Hold" recommendation for EAT, with an average 12-month price target of $171.63, implying a 12.85% upside from the current price of $152.09. However, the GF Value model from GuruFocus estimates a significantly lower intrinsic value of $53.00, suggesting a potential 65.15% downside. Historical performance shows mixed outcomes, as the company exceeded Q3 2025 EPS by 15.63% but saw its stock decline 14.8% post-announcement, highlighting the volatility tied to earnings surprises and guidance.

Backtesting of a strategy involving the top 500 stocks by daily trading volume and holding for one day yielded a $2,300 profit from 2022 to the present, but the approach faced a maximum drawdown of -15.7% in early 2023. This underscores the risks inherent in volume-driven short-term trading, even as Brinker’s elevated volume on August 12 signals heightened investor interest ahead of its earnings release.