Brighthouse Financial Soars 8.8% Amid Acquisition Buzz—What’s Next?

• Brighthouse Financial (BHF) surged 8.8% to $51.50 on reports of an imminent deal with Aquarian Holdings.
• Shares opened at $52.06, hitting an intraday high of $52.71 before pulling back to $51.34 lows.
• The Wall Street Journal reported Aquarian is in exclusive talks to acquire BHF, with a potential close within weeks.
• BHF’s 52-week high of $64.12 looms as a key resistance level, while its $40 low underscores its undervalued status.

BHF’s explosive rally reflects market excitement over the Aquarian deal, which could unlock its $100B asset base. The stock’s technicals and options activity hint at a volatile path ahead, with traders positioning for a potential valuation re-rating.

Aquarian Deal Speculation Ignites Brighthouse’s Surge
Brighthouse’s 8.8% surge stems directly from credible reports of an advanced acquisition bid by Aquarian Holdings, a firm backed by RedBird Capital and Mubadala. The Wall Street Journal noted Aquarian’s focus on BHF’s $100B+ general account assets—a goldmine for private equity firms seeking long-term capital. Analysts highlight BHF’s trading discount to book value (58% below its $8.2B book) as a catalyst for a premium deal. While TPG’s withdrawal from bidding reduced near-term uncertainty, the stock’s rally reflects investor confidence in Aquarian’s ability to close the deal amid favorable private credit market conditions.

Technical Bull Run Meets High-Potential Option Contracts
Technical Indicators:
• RSI: 25.54 (deep oversold, signaling potential rebound)
• Bollinger Bands: Current price ($51.50) near the lower band (46.86–53.75 range)
• MACD: -2.24 vs. signal line -1.65 (bearish crossover completed)
• 30D Moving Average: $55.25 (resistance threshold)

Trading Setup: BHF’s bullish momentum faces near-term resistance at $55.25 (30-day MA). A breakout could target $58.63 (consensus target) or $59 (200D resistance zone). Short-term traders may fade overbought RSI conditions, but the deal narrative supports a bullish bias. The lack of sector-wide catalysts keeps focus on BHF’s standalone story.

Top Option Picks:
1. BHF20250815C50 (Call):
- Strike: $50 | Expiration: Aug 2025
- Delta: 0.61 | Gamma: 0.048 | Theta: -0.089
- Implied Volatility: 53.54% | Leverage: 12.76%
- Why: The in-the-money call offers asymmetric upside with moderate delta exposure. A 5% price rise to $54.08 yields a ~8% payoff ($4.08 intrinsic value), while theta decay is manageable. High liquidity (226k turnover) ensures tradability.

2. BHF20250815P50 (Put):
- Strike: $50 | Expiration: Aug 2025
- Delta: -0.388 | Gamma: 0.0477 | Theta: -0.017
- Implied Volatility: 53.55% | Leverage: 21.43%
- Why: A defensive put for hedging or volatility plays. Its delta (-0.388) balances downside protection without overexposure. Theta decay is minimal, making it a hold until deal clarity emerges.

Action Hook: Aggressive buyers target BHF20250815C50 for a 5% price rise, while cautious traders layer BHF20250815P50 to hedge near-term volatility.

Backtest Brighthouse Financial Stock Performance
The backtest of BHF's performance after a 9% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a positive maximum return of 0.29% on the day following the surge, the overall short-term performance was lackluster, with the 3-day and 10-day returns being -0.02% and -0.06%, respectively. The 30-day return was slightly positive at 0.07%, but this was preceded by a period of underperformance. Therefore, while there is some evidence of post-surge recovery, the overall performance was muted, and the stock did not consistently build on the gains following the initial surge.

Ride the Deal Wave—or Wait for Closure?
Brighthouse’s rally hinges on Aquarian’s ability to navigate regulatory hurdles and finalize terms. Technicals suggest $55.25 (30D MA) is critical for sustaining momentum, while $59 (200D resistance) tests investor confidence. MetLife (MET), the sector leader, traded down -0.6%, underscoring BHF’s deal-driven outlier status. Investors should monitor the July deadline for deal progress and watch for a breakout above $55.25. For now, the call options offer a leveraged bet on a valuation reset—if the deal closes, BHF could gap higher toward $59 or beyond. Watch for regulatory approvals and a sustained close above $55.25.