Bridger Aerospace's Q3 2025 Earnings Call: Contradictions Emerge on Free Cash Flow Projections, Spanish Scoopers Strategy, and Deployment Plans

Date of Call: November 06, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: $67.9M in Q3, up 5% YOY (Q3 2024: $64.5M); YTD revenue $114.3M, up 38% vs $83.0M
• EPS: $0.37 per diluted share in Q3, vs $0.31 in Q3 2024

Guidance:

• Revenue now expected to be $118M–$123M (exceeded prior guidance top end).
• Adjusted EBITDA expected to finish at the higher end of the $42M–$48M range.
• Expect continued improvement in cash provided by operating activities in 2025.

Business Commentary:

• Record Revenue and EBITDA Growth:
• Bridger Aerospace reported record revenue of $67.9 million for Q3 2025, up 5% from the previous year, and 114.3 million for the first 9 months of 2025, a 38% increase year-to-year.

• This growth was driven by increased task orders, utilization, and successful implementation of long-term contracts with the Forest Service and individual states.

• Fleet Utilization and Operational Efficiency:

• Utilization measured in days on contract was up almost 10% year-over-year across the fleet, with multi-mission aircraft flight hours nearly doubling.

• The increased utilization and efficiency were attributed to proactive wildfire responses and improved task order management.

  

• Wildfire Response and Prevention:

• Despite an above-average number of fires, the NIFC reported only 4.7 million acres burned, down 40% from last year, due to effective wildfire prevention and control.

• Enhanced deployment of Bridger's Super Scoopers and improved response times contributed to the successful management of wildfire incidents.

• Financial Flexibility and Strategic Acquisitions:

• Bridger completed a $49 million sale-leaseback of its campus facilities and obtained a $331 million expanded debt facility, providing financial flexibility for fleet expansion.

• These strategic moves allow Bridger to acquire aircraft necessary for supporting contract expansion opportunities and further driving EBITDA growth.

• Investment in Sensor-Enhanced Aircraft and Technology:

• Bridger's Ignis Technologies mobile platform continues to support firefighters in the field, with a focus on integrating real-time sensor imagery with the platform for enhanced situational awareness.
• This investment in advanced technology aims to improve operational effectiveness, safety, and multi-mission aviation contract support.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management called Q3 a "record" quarter with revenue of $67.9M (up 5% YOY), stated they "surpass[ed] our annual revenue guidance in the first 9 months," and said they "remain on track to meet the high end of our adjusted EBITDA guidance."

Q&A:

• Question from Austin Moeller (Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division): Nice quarter. So you have about $14 million free cash flow year-to-date. How much are you tracking towards by end of year? And what do you plan to use the cash for?
  Response: Expect to finish the year around ~$14M (maybe slightly higher); free cash will be evaluated for fleet expansion in conjunction with the new credit facility.

• Question from Austin Moeller (Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division): Okay. And now that the credit facility is in place and the sale leaseback is complete, do you expect the Spanish scoopers to be staying in Europe or coming to the U.S.A.?
  Response: Undecided—management is exploring all strategic and economic options, noting strong optionality and will decide over the winter months.

Contradiction Point 1

Free Cash Flow Projections

It involves differing projections for free cash flow, which is a critical financial metric for investors, potentially impacting expectations for future cash generation and capital allocation decisions.

What is your free cash flow outlook for the year and how do you plan to use the cash? - Austin Moeller (Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division)

2025Q3: We expect to end the year around the same amount as year-to-date, which is approximately $14 million in free cash flow. - Eric Gerratt(CFO)

What is the 2025 full-year financial guidance? - Date: February 28, 2025

2025Q2: We expect to be cash flow positive for the year with cash provided by operating activities being $18 million to $24 million. - Eric L. Gerratt(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

Strategic Direction of Spanish Scoopers

It relates to the strategic direction of the Spanish Super Scoopers, impacting potential market expansion and resource allocation decisions.

With the credit facility and sale-leaseback completed, will the Spanish scoopers remain in Europe or relocate to the U.S.? - Austin Moeller (Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division)

2025Q3: We are exploring all avenues for the Spanish scoopers and will consider both strategic and economic benefits. - Sam Davis(CEO)

What is your full-year 2025 financial guidance? - Date: February 28, 2025

2025Q2: As you can see from our capital allocation priorities, we're committed to building a robust fleet of assets. We plan to continue to make investments in 2025 that are tied to our strategic and long-term vision. - Sam Davis(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Contract Opportunities and Expansion Strategy

It highlights inconsistencies in the company's strategy and expectations regarding contract opportunities and expansion in Europe.

With the credit facility and sale-leaseback finalized, will the Spanish scoopers remain in Europe or relocate to the U.S.? - Austin Moeller (Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division)

2025Q3: We are exploring all avenues for the Spanish scoopers and will consider both strategic and economic benefits. The current status of two operational aircraft provides significant options. The decision will be made based on the best opportunity, with flexibility to place the aircraft strategically. - Sam Davis(CEO)

Are negotiations with Turkey and Portugal ongoing, and are other European countries also involved? - Austin Moeller (Canaccord)

2025Q1: The company is in discussions with those countries, which have high demand for CL platforms. The introduction of privately-owned, privately-operated fleets is new in Europe. The focus is on expanding contracts from an appropriations and multiyear construct. Awards from Turkey and Portugal have been delivered early this year, indicating high activity and demand. - Sam Davis(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Spanish Scooper Deployment Strategy

It involves differing strategies for the deployment of Spanish Scoopers, which have significant implications for revenue generation and operational costs.

With the credit facility and sale-leaseback finalized, will the Spanish scoopers remain in Europe or move to the U.S.A.? - Austin Moeller (Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division)

2025Q3: We are exploring all avenues for the Spanish scoopers and will consider both strategic and economic benefits. The current status of two operational aircraft provides significant options. The decision will be made based on the best opportunity, with flexibility to place the aircraft strategically. - Sam Davis(CEO)

How has the delivery and operational cadence of the Spanish Scoopers in Europe during the fire season compared to your most recent expectations? - Austin Moeller (Canaccord)

2024Q4: The first two Spanish Scoopers are on track with their maintenance schedules, with the first receiving certificate of airworthiness. They should be ready for the fire season. Ongoing negotiations for contracts in Europe to deploy these aircraft. The other two are expected to be ready within the season. - Sam Davis(CEO)

Contradiction Point 5

Cash Flow and Capital Allocation

It involves differing perspectives on cash flow projections and their usage, which are critical for financial planning and investor expectations.

What is your expected free cash flow for the year, and how do you plan to allocate the cash? - Austin Moeller (Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division)

2025Q3: We expect to end the year around the same amount as year-to-date, which is approximately $14 million in free cash flow. Typically, the fourth quarter involves a maintenance cycle, which results in lower revenue. The cash will be used for fleet expansion opportunities, aligning with the new credit facility, and deciding how to best deploy the capital. - Eric Gerratt(CFO)

What is your assessment of the current cash balance and its adequacy for U.S. operations, Spanish Scoopers' upgrades, and initial European operations? - Austin Moeller (Canaccord)

2024Q4: The company feels comfortable with the current cash balance, with over $39 million available. This is sufficient for working capital needs and operations in the U.S. The funding for the Spanish Scoopers upgrades comes from the partnership with MAB group, not the company's cash. - Eric Gerratt(CFO)