Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's popularity surges amidst Trump's tariff threats.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's popularity has increased in Brazil due to his handling of former President Jair Bolsonaro. A LatAm Pulse survey by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News shows that 50.2% of Brazilians approve of Lula, up from 49.7% two weeks prior. Lula's disapproval rating fell to 49.7% from 50.3% in the same period. Lula is leading his opponents in polls, including Bolsonaro, who is banned from public office. In a hypothetical second-round election, Lula would defeat São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas by 50.4% to 46.6%.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's popularity has surged in Brazil, according to a recent survey by LatAm Pulse for Bloomberg News. The survey indicates that 50.2% of Brazilians approve of Lula, up from 49.7% two weeks prior. Lula's disapproval rating fell to 49.7% from 50.3% in the same period [1]. This increase in approval ratings comes amidst the backdrop of Lula's handling of former President Jair Bolsonaro's legal troubles and the recent tariffs imposed by the United States.

The rise in Lula's approval rating is significant, as it places him in the lead against his opponents in polls. In a hypothetical second-round election, Lula would defeat São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas by 50.4% to 46.6% [1]. This trend suggests that Lula's firm stance on national sovereignty and his response to the U.S. tariffs have resonated with a majority of Brazilians.

The U.S. tariffs, announced by President Donald Trump, have been a contentious issue in Brazil. The tariffs, which target Brazilian steel and aluminum, have been linked to Bolsonaro's ongoing trial for his alleged involvement in a plot to overturn the 2022 presidential election results. Lula's strong response to the tariffs has been seen as a demonstration of leadership and a defense of Brazil's sovereignty, which has likely contributed to his increased popularity [2].

However, the tariffs pose a tangible threat to the Brazilian economy. The sectors most affected, such as steel and aluminum, are politically sensitive and regionally concentrated. While Brazil has vowed to retaliate using its Reciprocity Law, the priority is to negotiate and eventually appeal to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The immediate disruption to supply chains and market uncertainty is a cause for concern [3].

The diplomatic relations between the United States and Brazil under Trump and Lula are fraught. Trump's direct intervention in Brazil's internal judicial affairs has been met with strong condemnation from Lula and the Brazilian population. Lula has rejected what he has called 'unacceptable blackmail' and has defended Brazil's independent judiciary [4]. Despite Lula's willingness to engage in dialogue, the current climate is one of tension and firm resolve from Brazil to defend its sovereignty.

In conclusion, Lula's rising popularity in Brazil is a result of his handling of Bolsonaro's legal troubles and his firm response to the U.S. tariffs. While the tariffs pose a threat to the Brazilian economy, Lula's leadership in defending national sovereignty has resonated with the Brazilian public. The future of U.S.-Brazil relations remains uncertain, but Lula's strong stance has positioned him well ahead of next year's general elections.

References:
[1] https://thedialogue.org/analysis/what-factors-are-driving-up-lulas-popularity-in-brazil
[2] https://thedialogue.org/analysis/what-factors-are-driving-up-lulas-popularity-in-brazil
[3] https://thedialogue.org/analysis/what-factors-are-driving-up-lulas-popularity-in-brazil
[4] https://thedialogue.org/analysis/what-factors-are-driving-up-lulas-popularity-in-brazil