Brazilian Coffee Imports Freeze Amid Trump Tariffs

US coffee roasters are facing a crisis after the Trump administration's 50% tariff on Brazilian beans took effect. Imports from Brazil have virtually frozen, with buyers renegotiating old deals and switching to beans from Central America, Peru, or Mexico. Brazilian exporters confirm that some US buyers are seeking delayed shipments, while roasters are holding their breath and stockpiling futures contracts. If the impasse persists, Brazilian beans may flow to Europe or China, affecting the US coffee market.

The US coffee industry is in turmoil following the Trump administration's 50% tariff on Brazilian beans, which took effect on August 6. This tariff, which accounts for a third of America's unroasted coffee imports, has led to a virtual freeze in imports from Brazil. Roasters are now scrambling to find alternative sources, but replacements are proving difficult due to Brazil's dominance of the arabica market [1].

Roasters are stockpiling futures contracts and sourcing beans from countries like Vietnam and Uganda, where tariffs are lower [1]. However, these alternatives present their own challenges. Vietnam primarily produces robusta beans, which are not suitable for premium blends. Additionally, limited offers from Honduras are trading at a significant premium, and Colombian exporters are withholding offers in anticipation of potential price surges [1].

If the tariff impasse persists, more Brazilian beans are likely to be diverted to Europe or China, where demand is strong and traceability rules are tightening. This re-routing of global coffee supplies could lead to a tighter and more expensive market for high-quality arabica beans in the US. Smaller roasters, in particular, are vulnerable to the cost increase, with many reporting that absorbing a 10% tariff would be nearly impossible, and a 50% levy is considered "staggering and insurmountable" [1].

In the short term, some roasters have temporary supply buffers, with inventories lasting into November. However, they will eventually be forced to purchase new shipments at the higher tariff rate, impacting future profitability and consumer pricing [1].

American coffee buyers are shunning fresh deals with top grower Brazil after President Donald Trump’s 50% tariff took effect this month. Most Read from Bloomberg Companies are avoiding new contracts and looking for wiggle room in existing ones to avoid having to pay the higher levies, according to a dozen brokers, roasters, and exporters contacted by Bloomberg [2].

Florida-based Zaza Coffee, for instance, gets about a quarter of its beans from Brazil and currently has 14 to 16 weeks left of those supplies. After the beans are used up, the company is looking to replace them with coffee from Central America, Peru, and Mexico [2]. Similarly, the country’s dominant share makes its beans nearly irreplaceable, with few alternative origins able to match its volumes [2].

Roasters may also not want to alter the profile of the blends customers are accustomed to. Brazil is the world’s top exporter of arabica, which is considered smoother than robusta and is the only bean used by coffeehouse chain Starbucks Corp. “Roasters have blends that they like to keep as consistent as they can in any given cost environment,” Rabobank analyst Jim Watson said [2].

The US and Brazil are at a standstill on tariffs, and there’s still no confirmation of an exemption for coffee. President Trump’s 50% import levies on Brazilian goods caused the C price to surge earlier this week, peaking at US$3.29/lb. Reports of US buyers requesting to delay Brazilian imports, holding out for a decision on tariffs, could drive up prices even further [3].

The push to exempt coffee has been persistent. New York roaster Coffee Bros launched a petition in April, which has reached nearly 14,000 signatures, and the Congressional Coffee Caucus has urged the US government to reconsider its stance [3]. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted at the possibility that coffee may be exempt from tariffs, but there has yet to be a final confirmation [3].

Brazil is not the only country affected by US tariffs, however. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s supporters in India, which is also facing 50% duties, are calling for boycotts of US-backed brands, including coffee chains. In such a lucrative, thriving specialty coffee market like India, this underlying tension could spell bad news for US coffee chains looking to expand [3].

References:
[1] https://www.ainvest.com/news/coffee-roasters-face-tariffs-scramble-brazilian-bean-alternatives-2508/
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-roasters-shun-coffee-brazil-142903098.html
[3] https://perfectdailygrind.com/2025/08/coffee-news-recap-15-august-2025/