Brazil's Soybean Production to Rise 5.6% in 2025/26, Says StoneX

Brazil's soybean production is expected to rise 5.6% in 2025/26, according to StoneX. The prediction comes as the country's agricultural sector continues to grow, driven by favorable weather conditions and increased demand for soybeans.

Brazil's soybean production is projected to increase by 5.6% in the 2025/26 marketing year, according to StoneX. The prediction is driven by favorable weather conditions and growing demand for soybeans, positioning Brazil as a key player in the global agricultural market [1].

The rise in production comes amidst a backdrop of robust agricultural growth in Brazil. StoneX's analysis indicates that the country's soybean harvest in the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to reach a record high of 182.9 million tons. This projection is significantly higher than the 2024/25 season's production of 173.5 million tons and exceeds the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) forecast of 175 million tons [1].

The increased production is attributed to a combination of factors, including favorable weather conditions and expanded agricultural areas. Brazilian agencies such as Datagro and Safras & Mercado have also forecast record-high soybean production, further supporting the optimism around Brazil's agricultural sector [2].

The projected growth in soybean production is likely to impact global markets, particularly in the United States and Ukraine. The USDA forecast suggests that China will increase its soybean imports to 112 million tons in the new season, while Brazil is expected to export 112 million tons. This shift could lead to a reduction in US soybean exports to China, potentially increasing supplies to other markets such as the EU, Egypt, and Turkey [2].

In Ukraine, the soybean production is expected to decrease by more than 1 million tons due to a reduction in sowing areas. The State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported that the area sown with soybeans in 2025 amounted to 2.08 million hectares, a 24% decrease from the previous year's record figure. Additionally, the introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans from Ukraine and decreased export demand are expected to lower soybean prices in September to 16,000-17,000 UAH/t [2].

The increased soybean production in Brazil is poised to influence global commodity prices and trade dynamics. As Brazil continues to expand its agricultural output, it is likely to play a pivotal role in shaping the global soybean market, particularly in the face of potential tariff threats and geopolitical uncertainties.

References:
[1] https://www.marketscreener.com/news/brazil-s-soybean-production-to-rise-5-6-in-2025-26-stonex-says-ce7c5edadf8efe25
[2] https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/analysts-again-raised-the-forecast-for-soybean-production-in-brazil-which-increased-pressure-on-quotes-in-chicago-and-prices-in-ukraine/