Brazil's Catholic Population Declines, Evangelical Faith Surges Amid Census Data Release

Brazil's Catholic population declined to 56.7% in 2022, down from 65.1% in 2010. Meanwhile, evangelical Christians rose to 26.9% and those with no religion increased to 9.3%. The shift may pose challenges for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's leftist government, which has historically struggled to gain support among evangelicals.

Brazil's religious landscape has undergone significant shifts in recent years, with notable declines in the Catholic population and increases in evangelical Christians and those with no religious affiliation. According to the latest census data from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), the Catholic population has fallen from 65.1% in 2010 to 56.7% in 2022 [1]. Conversely, evangelical Christians have risen to 26.9% of the population, up from 21.6% in 2010 [1]. This shift may pose challenges for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's leftist government, which has historically struggled to gain support among evangelicals.

The slowdown in evangelical growth, from 2010 to 2022, has been attributed to various factors, including the adoption of radical partisan positions by religious leaders during the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro [1]. This political alignment has caused some evangelicals to feel uncomfortable and even betrayed, leading to a deceleration in growth. Additionally, the increase in the proportion of people classified as religiously unaffiliated, rising from 7.9% to 9.3%, reflects a broader trend of secularization in Brazil [1].

The geographic distribution of these religious groups also highlights significant shifts. Evangelicals outnumbered Catholics in two of Brazil's 27 administrative regions: Acre and Rondônia, both located in the northern Amazon region [1]. This growth in the Amazon is partly attributed to demographic factors such as urbanization, which has transformed the region and provided a new context for evangelical expansion [1].

The political implications of these religious shifts are substantial. Evangelicals have emerged as a significant political force in Brazil, forming one of the main support bases for former President Jair Bolsonaro and presenting a challenge to the leftist government of President Lula da Silva [2]. A recent poll indicated that despite positive economic indicators, President Lula da Silva is struggling in his third term, with disapproval rates among evangelicals at 66% [2].

The data also reveals demographic trends within these religious groups. There are more Black evangelicals than white ones, with 12% of evangelicals being Black compared to 10.7% of the overall population [1]. This finding is particularly relevant given that the majority of Brazil's population is Black, at 56% [1].

The increase in the number of people with no religious affiliation, rising from 4.6% to 9.3%, and the growth in followers of Afro-Brazilian religions such as candomblé and umbanda, from 0.3% to 1%, further illustrate the changing religious landscape of Brazil [1]. These shifts underscore the need for the government to engage with a more diverse and secularized population.

References:
[1] https://www.christianitytoday.com/2025/06/religion-brazil-census-2022/
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/06/brazil-catholics-evangelicals-religion-census