Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) Market Overview

• Price declined sharply during the 15-minute window, closing near intraday lows at $0.2194 after an initial rebound.
• Volatility spiked mid-session with a 2.5% drop and later stabilized in a tight range.
• Volume surged at the start and end of the 24-hour period, indicating potential accumulation or dumping.
• RSI remains oversold territory, suggesting a potential rebound but with limited conviction.
• Bollinger Bands constrict near the end of the period, indicating a potential breakout or consolidation phase.

Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) opened at $0.2186 at 12:00 ET-1 and hit a high of $0.2202 before retreating to a low of $0.196 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 582,713.6, with a total turnover of approximately $138,292. The pair exhibited a sharp bearish reversal in the early hours, followed by a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish reversal pattern around 18:45–20:00 ET as it moved from $0.2197 down to $0.2162. This was followed by a consolidation phase between $0.2162 and $0.218, indicating indecision. Key support levels appear to be forming around $0.2157 and $0.2125, with resistance visible at $0.2197 and $0.2202. A potential doji formed at the 00:30–00:45 ET window, suggesting a pause in bearish momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in close proximity, with price hovering slightly below the 50SMA, indicating a weakening short-term trend. On the daily chart, the 50DMA was at $0.218, the 100DMA at $0.2165, and the 200DMA at $0.215. Price has crossed below the 200DMA recently, a bearish sign for the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the early hours, confirming bearish momentum. RSI hit an intraday low of 28, entering oversold territory. This suggests a potential bounce may be near, but a sustained reversal would require a strong volume confirmation and a close above the 50SMA.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the initial bearish leg, pushing the 20-period bands apart by over 0.5%. Price moved from the upper band to the lower band, indicating aggressive bearish pressure. By the end of the 24-hour window, volatility had contracted again, with the bands narrowing and price near the lower bound. This could signal a potential rebound or a consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked at the start of the session and again in the final hour, coinciding with price consolidating near $0.2194. This suggests potential accumulation or dumping activity. Notional turnover also saw a sharp increase during the early bearish move, confirming the strength of the selloff. Divergence between price and volume was minimal, indicating consistent participation from market participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.2202 to $0.196, the 61.8% retracement level is at $0.2121, and the 38.2% retracement is at $0.2075. The price has bounced off the 61.8% level multiple times, indicating a potential floor if bearish momentum continues. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the recent high is near $0.2145, a level that has acted as a support in the past.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for ZKCUSDC involves scanning for Bearish Engulfing candlestick patterns, which are typically high-probability reversal signals in bearish trends. These patterns consist of a small bullish candle followed by a larger bearish candle that completely engulfs the previous one. Given the bearish pressure observed over the past 24 hours, identifying past Bearish Engulfing signals could help assess the reliability of the pattern in this pair. However, a recent data-service error suggests that the ticker may not be properly resolved or that the pattern scan is not supported for this symbol. To resolve this, confirmation of the correct ticker format (e.g., ZK-USDC on a specific exchange) or manual provision of historical dates with known Bearish Engulfing patterns would allow for a direct backtest. Once confirmed, this approach could be used to validate the effectiveness of this pattern in predicting short-term price corrections on ZKCUSDC.