Bonfida/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price dropped from 0.0536 to 0.0492 over 24 hours amid bearish momentum.
• High volatility seen with low at 0.0484 and high at 0.0538, suggesting pressure.
• Volume surged to 2.7M, but turnover failed to confirm sustained strength.
• RSI near oversold territory with no clear reversal sign yet.
• Short-term support near 0.0495–0.0485; key resistance at 0.0508.

Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) opened at 0.0536 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0492 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-14. The 24-hour range spanned from 0.0538 to 0.0484, with a total volume of 6,568,382.8 and a notional turnover of approximately $319,413. The pair appears to be under bearish control, with no immediate signs of a reversal on the 15-minute chart.

Structure & Formations

Price action has shown consistent bearish pressure over the past 24 hours, with multiple breakdowns below key support levels. Notable bearish engulfing patterns emerged during the early morning hours, particularly between 04:30 and 06:00 ET, where price gapped lower without retracement. A doji appeared near 0.0495, suggesting indecision or potential short-term support. Resistance is forming around 0.0508, with prior rejection seen in the early morning hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both 20- and 50-period SMAs, confirming short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, price remains below 50-, 100-, and 200-period SMAs, reinforcing the medium-term downtrend. The 50-period SMA at 0.0507 is currently acting as a dynamic resistance and a potential pivot for near-term traders.

MACD & RSI

MACD is in negative territory with bearish divergence, as the histogram has been shrinking since early morning, suggesting a slowdown in downward momentum. RSI has dipped into oversold territory (near 30) around 04:45 ET but has failed to generate a convincing bullish reversal. Momentum appears to be waning, with no clear catalyst for a rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the 04:30–05:30 ET window, expanding the bands to a width of 0.0064. Price has since retracted into the lower band, with the centerline at 0.0496 offering a potential near-term support level. A sustained close above 0.0508 could signal a temporary retracement into the upper band, but this seems unlikely given the current trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 04:30–04:45 ET window (2.7M), coinciding with the largest price drop of the session. However, notional turnover failed to confirm this move, indicating lower conviction among traders. Divergence between volume and price suggests the move may be running out of steam, but a sustained rebound will require stronger buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the drop from 0.0538 to 0.0484 has seen price retrace to the 38.2% level at 0.0516 and is currently testing the 61.8% level at 0.0503. On a daily scale, the broader move suggests a potential 61.8% retracement target at 0.0503, which aligns with key resistance levels. A break below 0.0492 would suggest a deeper pullback to 0.0485–0.0475.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based trading strategy described—buying during oversold conditions and selling during overbought—could have generated mixed results in this context. While the recent oversold RSI levels (around 30) may have suggested a potential buying opportunity, the lack of a strong reversal candlestick or sustained bullish momentum implies a higher risk of a false signal. In this scenario, a trader using this strategy might have entered longs during the 04:45–05:00 ET window when RSI hit oversold levels, but would have faced significant risk given the broader bearish context and the absence of confirmatory price action. This highlights the importance of incorporating additional tools such as volume and Fibonacci retracement levels for better timing.