Bonfida/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price declined to 0.0579, breaching key support levels in a bearish continuation pattern.
• Volume surged in the final 15-minute candle, indicating potential bearish confirmation.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions but with bearish momentum still intact.

FIDAUSDT traded with an opening at 0.0605 on 2025-11-07 12:00 ET-1, reaching a high of 0.0621 and a low of 0.0578, closing at 0.0579 on 2025-11-08 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 19,246,128.0, and notional turnover amounted to $1,148,543. The pair has seen a distinct bearish bias over the last day.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a breakdown from key psychological levels (0.0600 and 0.0590), with bearish engulfing patterns observed in the second half of the session, confirming a strong bearish bias. A 0.0588–0.0578 low-to-low breakdown suggests increased pressure, and the 0.0590 level may now act as strong immediate support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both crossed below price action, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages are in bearish alignment, with price below the 200-period SMA, indicating a medium-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD remains negative and bearish, with a bearish crossover confirmed late in the session. RSI has entered oversold territory (below 30), but bears remain in control, with the oscillator yet to show a convincing bullish divergence.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded during the final stretch, with price closing near the lower Bollinger band. The 0.0578 close suggests a continuation of bearish pressure, and a retest of the 0.0590 level may offer a potential bounce opportunity.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked on the final candle as price broke below the 0.0588 level, confirming the breakdown. Notional turnover aligned with price action, showing no divergence. This indicates strong conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key 15-minute retracement levels (0.0595, 0.0602, and 0.0608) were tested and broken. On the daily chart, the 0.0590 level aligns with a 61.8% retracement of the recent bullish move, making it a critical psychological and Fibonacci support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A bearish engulfing pattern-based strategy has demonstrated historical success in FIDAUSDT. Sell signals generated during bearish engulfing formations, followed by a 1-day holding period, produced consistent returns from 2022 to 2023. The strategy’s strong performance suggests that pattern-based setups could remain relevant in this pair, especially when reinforced by volume confirmation and key support levels being broken.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may see FIDAUSDT testing the 0.0590 level. A break below 0.0585 could indicate further downside, while a rebound above 0.0600 may suggest short-term bear exhaustion. Investors should remain cautious, as volatility remains high and trend continuation is still a strong possibility.