Bolt Food's Strategic Exit from Croatia and Implications for Digital Ecosystems in Emerging Markets

Bolt Food's decision to exit Croatia by October 6, 2025, marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of the on-demand economy in emerging markets. As the smallest of the “big three” food delivery platforms in the country, Bolt Food was uniquely profitable, generating €2.7 million in revenue in 2024 despite a 50% decline from its 2022 peak. Yet, its exit underscores the fragility of tech-driven delivery models in regions where unit economics remain elusive. For investors, this case study offers a stark reminder: scalability and profitability are not guaranteed in markets defined by high operational costs, fragmented demand, and cutthroat competition.

The Croatian Conundrum: A Microcosm of Emerging Market Challenges

Croatia's food delivery sector, once a post-pandemic boom, has become a cautionary tale. Bolt Food's profitability contrasted sharply with Glovo's €7.4 million loss in 2024 and Wolt's narrow €352,000 profit. The company's exit was driven by unsustainable margins, exacerbated by rising fuel costs, logistical bottlenecks, and a customer base that remained price-sensitive despite the availability of premium services.

The Croatian experience mirrors broader trends in emerging markets:
1. High Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC): Aggressive discounts and loyalty programs, while effective in the short term, eroded profit margins.
2. Logistical Complexity: Delivering to Croatia's coastal cities and inland regions required a decentralized network, inflating operational costs.
3. Regulatory and Labor Dynamics: Independent courier partnerships, while cost-effective, limited Bolt's ability to control delivery times or service quality.

Resilient Alternatives: Embedded Finance and Sector Diversification

For investors seeking exposure to Europe's on-demand economy, the key lies in identifying models that address these structural challenges. Bolt Food's pivot to Bolt Food Finance—a €30,000 embedded lending program for restaurant partners—offers a blueprint. By integrating financial services into its ecosystem, Bolt shifts from a transactional delivery model to a value-added platform, fostering long-term partnerships and reducing churn. This approach aligns with a broader trend in Europe, where embedded finance is projected to generate €100 billion in revenue by 2030.

Other resilient sectors include:
- Digital Logistics Platforms: Startups like Chowdeck in Nigeria (a case study in Bolt Food's failure) have thrived by prioritizing profitability over scale. Their hyper-local focus and adaptive pricing models could be replicated in Europe's fragmented markets.
- SME-Focused Embedded Finance: The European Commission's push for an “SME sustainable finance standard” highlights the potential for fintechs to bridge the gap between large corporations and small businesses.
- Energy-Integrated Delivery Networks: Companies leveraging renewable energy for last-mile delivery (e.g., electric scooters or solar-powered warehouses) could mitigate fuel cost volatility.

Strategic Investment Opportunities

1. Bolt Food Finance and Similar Platforms: Embedded lending solutions for SMEs are gaining traction, particularly in markets where traditional banking is inaccessible. Bolt's €30,000 loan program, repayable as a percentage of revenue, reduces default risk and aligns incentives.
2. Logistics Tech Startups: Firms optimizing delivery routes via AI or leveraging IoT for real-time tracking could thrive in high-friction markets.
3. Regulatory-Compliant Fintechs: As the EU streamlines its sustainable finance framework, startups offering green financing or compliance tools for SMEs will gain an edge.

The Road Ahead: Lessons for Investors

Bolt Food's exit from Croatia is not a failure but a recalibration. It highlights the need for investors to prioritize unit economics over rapid expansion and to seek models that integrate financial, logistical, and regulatory resilience. In Europe's on-demand economy, the winners will be those who adapt to local conditions, embrace embedded finance, and build ecosystems that transcend delivery.

For now, the Croatian market will be left to Glovo and Wolt, but the broader lesson is clear: in emerging markets, sustainability trumps speed. Investors who recognize this shift will find fertile ground in the next wave of on-demand innovation.