Boeing’s Strategic Crossroads: Can Ortberg’s Bernstein Speech Signal a Takeoff for Investors?

Boeing’s stock (BA) has been a rollercoaster for investors, buffeted by supply chain turbulence, regulatory scrutiny, and the lingering aftermath of the pandemic. With CEO Kelly Ortberg set to address investors at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference on May 29, the event offers a critical moment to assess whether Boeing’s recovery is finally gaining altitude. The stakes are high: Ortberg’s remarks on delivery timelines, 737 MAX profitability, and capital allocation priorities could either ignite investor confidence or expose lingering vulnerabilities. Here’s what to watch for—and why Boeing’s stock could be primed for takeoff.

The Operational Recovery: Progress or Mirage?

Boeing’s Q1 2025 results marked a turning point: deliveries rose 57% year-on-year to 130 aircraft, with the 737 MAX accounting for 105 of those. Ortberg’s ability to credibly outline a path to ramping production to 38 737 MAXs/month by late 2025—and eventually 42/month—will be pivotal. A sustained increase would alleviate backlogs and pressure from competitors like Airbus, but risks loom. The FAA’s scrutiny over production quality and the lingering fallout from the $24 billion capital raise in late 2024 demand transparency. Investors need assurance that Boeing’s “Safety and Quality Plan” is eradicating defects without stifling efficiency.

The China Tariff Quagmire: Can Boeing Navigate?

With ~50 undelivered aircraft to Chinese customers due to retaliatory tariffs, Ortberg’s strategy for remarketing these jets—41 already built, 9 still in production—will test his geopolitical acumen. Boeing’s temporary absorption of U.S. tariffs on imported components (e.g., Japanese/Italian parts) is unsustainable. A breakthrough in U.S.-China trade negotiations or a shift toward diversifying markets could unlock $1.5 billion in annual cash flow. Investors must parse whether Ortberg’s tone suggests diplomatic leverage or resignation to prolonged headwinds.

Sustainable Aviation: A Growth Catalyst or Distraction?

Boeing’s pivot to sustainability offers a compelling narrative. Its partnership with Norsk e-Fuel to produce electro-SAF—a fuel cutting emissions by 90%—aligns with EU mandates and Boeing’s net-zero goals. The Cascade Climate Impact Model, a tool to optimize decarbonization pathways, signals long-term vision. Yet, SAF adoption remains nascent: it accounts for less than 1% of global aviation fuel. Ortberg’s clarity on how Boeing will scale SAF partnerships, navigate carbon pricing regimes, and monetize its R&D (e.g., the 777X’s efficiency gains) will determine whether ESG initiatives are a strategic pillar or a PR overreach.

Capital Allocation: Prudence or Overreach?

Boeing’s $10.55 billion sale of its digital aviation business to strengthen its balance sheet was a shrewd move. With $23.7 billion in cash and $53.6 billion in debt, maintaining an investment-grade rating is non-negotiable. Ortberg must convince investors that cash flows from stabilizing production and defense contracts (e.g., the $30 billion F-47 fighter deal) justify continued reinvestment in innovation. A pause in share buybacks until production is fully de-risked could signal discipline—a rare virtue in an industry prone to overextension.

The Regulatory Overhang: A Ceiling or Ceiling-Less?

The FAA’s lingering oversight over Boeing’s production lines remains a Sword of Damocles. A recent 1,000+ vendor audits to improve supply chain quality is a positive sign, but any new certification delays for the 777X or 787 could crater confidence. Investors need Ortberg to demonstrate that Boeing’s operational culture—rooted in post-737 MAX reforms—is now a reliability asset, not a liability.

Investment Thesis: Buy the Dip, or Hold for Lift-Off?

Boeing’s stock trades at 8.2x forward EV/EBITDA, a discount to its 10-year average of 10.5x, reflecting lingering risks. Yet, the fundamentals are improving: a backlog of $500 billion in orders (5,000+ planes) and a $460 billion market opportunity through 2030 underpin long-term value. If Ortberg’s speech delivers clarity on production ramp-up timelines, resolves China tariff exposure, and showcases a coherent sustainability roadmap, Boeing’s shares—currently at $215—could surge toward $260, their 2019 pre-pandemic peak.

Final Takeoff Checklist

• Delivery execution: 38 737s/month by end-2025 must be achievable without quality compromises.
• Tariff resolution: A clear path to remarketing stuck Chinese orders or pivoting to new markets.
• Sustainability monetization: SAF partnerships and Cascade’s ROI must be quantified.
• Balance sheet resilience: Debt reduction and free cash flow stability are non-negotiable.

If Ortberg ticks these boxes, Boeing’s stock isn’t just a recovery story—it’s a strategic buy at current levels. Miss any, and the turbulence continues. The skies ahead depend on how convincingly Kelly Ortberg charts Boeing’s course at Bernstein.