Boeing's Space Business: Unstoppable in 2025, If This Happens First
Eli GrantThursday, Dec 26, 2024 7:17 am ET

Ever since Boeing Co. announced its review of the Starliner operations, a big question has loomed over the future of the company's space business: What would Boeing do with it? The answer: Make it unstoppable, but that plan hinges on one crucial event. Here's how Boeing's space business could become the dominant force in 2025, and what needs to happen first.
Boeing's space division has a rich history, from the iconic Saturn V rockets that carried astronauts to the moon to the Starliner spacecraft aimed at ferrying astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS). However, the company's space endeavors have faced challenges, including cost overruns and delays with the Starliner program. Boeing's new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, is assessing the company's portfolio to raise cash, weed out underperforming units, and rescue the company from its current crisis. The review of the Starliner program signals that Boeing may unwind or sell an operation marred by years of glitches and delays.
Boeing's space business could become unstoppable in 2025 if it receives official certification for its Vulcan Centaur rocket. The Vulcan, a replacement for the Atlas V and Delta IV rockets, is crucial for Boeing's space division to regain its competitive edge. Here's how the certification could transform Boeing's space business:
1. Access to national security missions: With certification, Boeing would be able to compete for lucrative U.S. national security missions, which were previously dominated by SpaceX. This would allow Boeing to diversify its customer base and generate additional revenue streams. ULA CEO Tory Bruno expects official certification for Vulcan "this month, next month, [or in the] next few months," which would enable Boeing to launch two U.S. national security missions on Vulcan in 2025 (Breaking Defense, 2024).
2. Increased launch cadence: Boeing plans to launch 20 times in 2025, beating its previous record for most launches in a year. This increased launch cadence would help Boeing compete with SpaceX, which has a higher launch rate. Boeing's production capacity, with 16 Vulcan rockets in inventory and Blue Origin building engines at a pace to sustain 26 launches per year, would support this increased cadence (Breaking Defense, 2024).
3. Commercial market share: Boeing aims to achieve a healthier ratio of government to commercial launches, with about half of its launches being commercial. This goal is supported by a deal to launch 47 rockets for Amazon.com's Kuiper internet satellites, which alone would account for three to four years' worth of Boeing's 50%-of-30-per-year commercial launch goal (Breaking Defense, 2024). This increased commercial market share would help Boeing compete with SpaceX and other emerging launch providers.
4. Reputation and reliability: The successful certification of Vulcan, following the anomaly experienced during its second launch, would help Boeing regain its reputation and demonstrate its reliability as a launch provider. This would be crucial in attracting commercial customers and competing with SpaceX, which has gained a strong reputation for reliability and innovation.
5. Competition with emerging launch providers: With certification, Boeing would be better positioned to compete with emerging launch providers, such as Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, and Virgin Orbit. These companies are also targeting the commercial market, and Boeing's certification would help it maintain its competitive edge.
However, there are complicating factors. Boeing's financial struggles and the potential sale of its space business could impact the certification process and the company's ability to execute its plans. Additionally, investors in Boeing may have concerns about the company's balance sheet and the potential impact of a sale on the company's future.
In conclusion, Boeing's space business could become unstoppable in 2025 if it receives official certification for its Vulcan Centaur rocket. The certification would enable Boeing to access national security missions, increase its launch cadence, expand its commercial market share, and demonstrate reliability. However, the company's financial struggles and the potential sale of its space business could pose challenges to this plan. As Boeing navigates these complexities, the space industry will be watching to see if the company can indeed become the dominant force in 2025.
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