Boeing's Resurgence: A Strategic Buy Amid Production Gains and Order Momentum

The aerospace industry has long been a barometer of global economic confidence, and Boeing's recent trajectory suggests a pivotal shift from crisis to consolidation. After years of regulatory setbacks, production bottlenecks, and geopolitical headwinds, the company is now exhibiting signs of stabilization—driven by surging order momentum, incremental production ramp-ups, and a massive backlog of unfilled orders. For investors, this confluence of factors presents a compelling case for a strategic buy, provided they factor in lingering risks tied to execution.

Production Stabilization: A Critical Turning Point
Boeing's recovery hinges on its ability to align production with demand. In Q1 2025, the company delivered 130 commercial aircraft, a 57% jump from the same period in 2024. The 737 MAX program, its cash cow, remains central to this revival. Despite producing only 31 MAXs in April 2025—below its FAA-approved rate of 38/month—Boeing has since stabilized at that target, with CEO Kelly Ortberg declaring a “milestone” in May. The goal is to reach 42 MAX/month by mid-2025 and 47 by year-end, pending regulatory approval.

The 787 Dreamliner program also shows progress, with deliveries of 8 units in April and a target to increase to 7/month by year-end. While supply chain hurdles—such as fastener shortages and tariff-related delays—persist, Boeing's inventory of 97 undelivered MAXs provides a buffer to smooth delivery fluctuations. This stability is critical for revenue recognition: each undelivered aircraft represents trapped value until it crosses the tarmac to a customer.

Order Momentum: A Backlog-Driven Tailwind
Boeing's order pipeline has surged in 2025, signaling renewed demand. In March, it secured 192 gross orders, including 88 MAXs and 53 787s, though cancellations trimmed net orders to 163. The May 2025 Qatar Airways deal—130 787s and 30 777Xs—pushed monthly orders to 303, the sixth-highest in Boeing's history. This brought its backlog to 5,943 aircraft as of May, representing over 11 years of production.

The Paris Air Show in June 2025 amplified this momentum. While specifics of new orders remain opaque, analysts expect deals from Indian carriers like Air India (targeting 777Xs) and Middle Eastern airlines to dominate. Boeing's focus on widebody jets—a segment where it faces less direct competition than in narrowbodies—strengthens its long-term prospects.

Risks and Regulatory Crosswinds
Despite these positives, Boeing's path is fraught with challenges. Tariffs on steel and aluminum continue to strain costs, while geopolitical tensions—such as China's intermittent delivery bans—create volatility. The MAX 7 and MAX 10 certifications, delayed until late 2025, are pivotal: these variants account for 1,532 backlog orders, and their delays could stretch production timelines.

Moreover, supply chain resilience remains unproven. Boeing's April 2025 deliveries to China—resumed after a tariff truce—highlight the fragility of its global footprint. Competitor Airbus, meanwhile, has out-delivered Boeing by an average of 1.7 aircraft/month over the past year, underscoring the need for urgency.

Investment Thesis: A Buy with Caution
Boeing's valuation reflects its duality: $1.2 trillion in backlog and a stabilized production base contrast with persistent operational and regulatory risks. The stock trades at a 12-month forward P/E of 18x, below its 5-year average of 22x, suggesting undervaluation if production targets are met.

Investors should consider Boeing as a strategic buy at current levels, particularly if:
1. MAX 7/10 certifications are secured by late 2025.
2. 787 production reaches 7/month by year-end.
3. Chinese deliveries normalize, unlocking a key market.

Caveats: A prolonged supply chain crisis or FAA setbacks could derail progress. Investors should pair this position with close monitoring of quarterly delivery metrics and tariff developments.

Conclusion
Boeing's resurgence is real, but not yet assured. The company has stabilized its production engine and reignited order momentum, positioning it to capitalize on a decade-long backlog. For investors with a 3–5 year horizon, Boeing represents a compelling risk-reward trade: the upside of converting backlog into cash flows outweighs near-term execution risks—if management can deliver. The Paris Air Show's order surge and the MAX's production milestones are early votes of confidence. The question now is whether Boeing can sustain this trajectory—or if the skies will once again cloud over.

Investment rating: Buy (Moderate Risk)