Boeing's Q3 2025 Delivery Surge: A Glimpse of Recovery or a Fleeting Wind?

In the third quarter of 2025, Boeing delivered 160 commercial aircraft, a figure that underscores both progress and persistence in its long-awaited recovery. According to Boeing Announces Third Quarter Deliveries, this performance includes 121 737s, 6 767s, 9 777s, and 24 787s, marking a significant contribution to its year-to-date total of 440 commercial deliveries-surpassing the entire 2024 tally. By August alone, the company achieved its highest single-month delivery count since August 2018, with 57 aircraft, including 43 narrowbodies and 14 widebodies, according to a GuruFocus report. Such figures suggest a stabilization in production cadence, particularly for the 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner programs, which have long been central to Boeing's operational challenges.

The 737 MAX program, currently capped at 38 units per month by the FAA, demonstrated consistency in Q3, with deliveries stabilizing at 36 units in September, as reported by Simple Flying. Meanwhile, the 787 program outperformed expectations, delivering eight units in September—well above the current target of four to five per month, as PR Newswire reported. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have cited these gains as evidence of Boeing's improving operational discipline, with both firms maintaining "Buy" ratings and price targets of $260, reflecting optimism about the company's ability to scale production to 10 787s per month by 2026, according to a Barchart story.

However, the path to full recovery remains fraught. Certification delays for the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 variants persist, pushing their delivery timelines into 2026, PR Newswire noted. Similarly, the 767-300F production line, set to conclude in 2027, and the delayed entry of the 777-8 Freighter highlight structural bottlenecks in Boeing's widebody portfolio, according to Simple Flying. These constraints, coupled with ongoing supply chain and quality control issues, temper the enthusiasm of some analysts. William Blair, for instance, revised its Q3 2025 earnings forecast downward to a loss of $0.32 per share, citing unresolved operational risks in a MarketBeat alert.

Investor confidence, however, appears resilient. Boeing's stock has outperformed the S&P 500 and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund over the past 52 weeks, despite a Q2 2025 loss of $1.24 per share, as noted in a Barchart story. This resilience is partly attributable to the company's $619 billion backlog and its strategic divestitures, such as the $10.55 billion sale of its Digital Aviation Solutions business, which reduces financial complexity, according to Simple Flying. Moreover, potential large orders from Chinese partners have fueled speculation about renewed demand, though geopolitical tensions remain a wildcard.

The broader industry context is equally critical. Boeing's delivery momentum aligns with a global aviation sector rebound, driven by pent-up demand and fleet modernization. Yet, the company's ability to sustain this pace will depend on its capacity to navigate regulatory scrutiny, manage production costs, and address lingering reputational damage. As noted by UBS analysts, Boeing's free cash flow improvement and margin expansion potential are key metrics to watch in the coming quarters, as highlighted in a Forecast International report.

In conclusion, Boeing's Q3 2025 performance offers a cautiously optimistic snapshot of its recovery trajectory. While delivery numbers and analyst ratings suggest progress, the company's long-term success hinges on resolving structural challenges and maintaining investor trust. For now, the skies appear clearer, but turbulence remains on the horizon.