Boeing's Q2 Surge: A Turning Point in the Skies?

The aerospace sector has long been a barometer of global economic resilience, and Boeing's second-quarter performance offers a compelling snapshot of its journey from crisis to comeback. With a 15% sequential jump in commercial aircraft deliveries—reaching 150 units in Q2 2025—Boeing is signaling a strategic recovery that could redefine its investment narrative. This quarter's results, amplified by resumed orders from China, a record-breaking deal with Qatar Airways, and production efficiencies, suggest the company is navigating a critical inflection point. For investors, the question is whether this momentum translates into sustained value creation.

Operational Momentum: Deliveries, Orders, and the Qatar Catalyst

Boeing's Q2 deliveries hit their highest level since 2018, driven by a 104-unit surge in 737 MAX shipments and a near-doubling of 787 Dreamliner deliveries to 24 units. The revival of China's orders—eight aircraft in June alone, including a 787-9 to Juneyao Air—marks a critical thaw in trade tensions. But the real game-changer was Qatar Airways' $96 billion order for 130 787s and 30 777-9s, the largest single Dreamliner deal in history. This not only boosted Boeing's year-to-date net orders to 427 (versus just 25 in Q2 2024) but also underscored the enduring demand for wide-body aircraft in a post-pandemic world.

Production improvements are equally pivotal. The 737 MAX line ramped to 38 per month, with plans to hit 42 by year-end—a critical step toward profitability. Boeing's commercial division now targets a 10% margin by 2026, up from 6% in 2024, as higher volumes and cost discipline take hold. Fitch Ratings' upgrade of Boeing's credit outlook to “stable” in June 2025 further validates this turnaround, reflecting improved liquidity and reduced litigation risks post-DOJ settlement.

Valuation: A Discounted Opportunity?

Boeing's current valuation multiples remain depressed relative to its peers, despite its improving fundamentals. Its trailing P/E of -13.5 (due to recent losses) contrasts sharply with Airbus's trailing P/E of 15x, yet analysts highlight a compelling re-rating opportunity. With a $460 billion backlog—among the highest in aviation history—Boeing's future revenue streams are secured, even as it faces near-term headwinds like FAA scrutiny over the 787 and delays in the 777X program.

Boeing's EV/EBITDA of -21.4 (due to past losses) lags behind Airbus's 13.68x, but this gap narrows when considering Boeing's backlog and margin targets. Analysts project a price target of $220–$230, implying a 9%–10% upside from current levels. If margins expand faster than expected—a possibility if 737 MAX output hits 42/month—this target could rise further.

Risks and Realities: Navigating the Storm

Boeing's path is not without potholes. The 787's mid-air door plug incident and lingering regulatory hurdles could delay certifications, while competition from Airbus (which delivered 51 aircraft in May) and rising supply chain costs remain concerns. Geopolitical risks, particularly with China, also loom. Yet these challenges are neither new nor insurmountable. Fitch's upgraded rating and Qatar's vote of confidence suggest Boeing's operational and strategic pivots are gaining traction.

Investment Outlook: Buy Ahead of Earnings?

The July 29 earnings report will be a litmus test for Boeing's recovery. Investors should watch for margin expansion, 737 MAX production rates, and 787 certification timelines. With its stock up 23% YTD but still trading at a discount to its peers, Boeing presents a compelling risk-reward profile. The Qatar order and resumed Chinese demand have created a tailwind for wide-body aircraft, a segment where Boeing's Dreamliner and 777-9 remain unmatched.

For long-term investors, Boeing's backlog and margin trajectory justify a “buy” rating, especially ahead of earnings. Short-term volatility is inevitable—FAA approvals and macroeconomic headwinds could test nerves—but the structural drivers of recovery are in place. As the skies clear, Boeing's comeback could finally take flight.

Final Take: Boeing's Q2 results mark a pivotal chapter in its recovery. With strong order momentum, production improvements, and a Fitch-validated turnaround, the company is positioned to re-rate meaningfully. Investors should consider a gradual build of exposure ahead of the July 29 earnings, keeping an eye on margin targets and regulatory milestones. The skies may still have clouds, but Boeing's trajectory is increasingly pointing upward.