Boeing Plunges 3.95% Amid Turnaround Skepticism—Is This the Final Chapter in a Turbulent Recovery?

Summary
• Boeing’s stock slumped to a 52-week low of $226.78 amid mixed Q2 earnings reception
• CEO Ortberg’s $42/month 737 Max production target delayed to mid-2026
• Cash burn halved to $200M, but 52-week high of $242.69 remains unchallenged
• Direxion Daily BA Bull 2X ETF (BOEU) tumbles 7.94%, amplifying short-term volatility

Boeing’s $227.06 price tag—down nearly 4% from its $236.41 close—reflects a market grappling with conflicting signals. While Q2 earnings beat revenue forecasts and reduced cash burn, the stock’s intraday plunge from $242.69 to $226.78 underscores lingering doubts about Ortberg’s turnaround plan. Analysts are now scrutinizing whether the 38-plane 737 Max production rate and delayed certification timelines can sustain investor confidence.

Turnaround Optimism Cracks as Production Timelines Shift
Boeing’s 3.95% decline defies the headline-beating Q2 results, revealing a rift between financial metrics and operational credibility. While the company slashed cash burn to $200M and delivered 150 commercial jets—up from 92 a year ago—the market fixated on delayed certification for the 777-9 and 737 MAX 7/10 models until 2026. CEO Ortberg’s admission that the 42-plane production target for the 737 Max is now a mid-2026 goal, rather than the previously cited end-2025, shattered near-term optimism. This delay, coupled with unresolved supplier issues and the Air India 787 crash investigation, has investors questioning whether the $2.3B cash burn reduction is a temporary reprieve or a false dawn.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Splits as Boeing’s Struggles Outpace Peers
The Aerospace & Defense sector, led by Lockheed Martin (LMT) at -0.58%, shows mixed signals. While Boeing’s 3.95% drop dwarfs the sector’s modest decline, LMT’s stability highlights divergent investor sentiment. Boeing’s production delays and regulatory hurdles contrast sharply with peers like Raytheon and Northrop Grumman, whose defense contracts offer clearer revenue visibility. The sector’s focus on U.S.-Japan trade deals and EU tariffs, however, hasn’t offset concerns about Boeing’s commercial aviation challenges, creating a widening gap between its valuation and industry peers.

Navigating the Volatility: ETFs and Options for a Turbulent Recovery
• RSI: 79.43 (overbought)
• MACD: 6.899 (bullish divergence)
• 200-day MA: $178.34 (far below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $241.82 (upper), $225.36 (mid), $208.90 (lower)

The $227.06 price near the Bollinger lower band and overbought RSI suggest a potential rebound. However, the 200-day MA at $178.34 indicates a long-term bearish trend. Direxion Daily BA Bull 2X (BOEU) at -7.94% offers leveraged exposure but carries high risk given the ETF’s 2X volatility. For options, BA20250808C230 and BA20250808C232.5 stand out: both have moderate deltas (0.396 and 0.317), high leverage ratios (73.03% and 99.29%), and strong gammas (0.0339 and 0.0312).

BA20250808C230 (strike $230, expiration 8/8): With a 28.92% implied volatility and -0.5466 theta, this call is ideal for a short-term rebound trade. If Boeing closes above $230 by expiration, the 73.03% leverage ratio could amplify gains. A 5% downside scenario (to $215.71) would result in a $14.29 loss per contract.
BA20250808C232.5 (strike $232.5, expiration 8/8): The 29.07% IV and 0.3167 delta make this a high-gamma play. A $227.06 price could see significant gamma-driven gains if Boeing rallies. A 5% downside would reduce payoff to $15.49, but the 99.29% leverage ratio cushions against smaller declines.

Action: Short-term traders should target the $230 level for a potential bounce, while conservative investors may hedge with the $232.5 call. If $225 breaks, consider the $227.5 put (BA20250808P227.5) for downside protection.

Backtest The Boeing Stock Performance
After a -4% intraday plunge, British Airways (BA) has historically shown a positive short-to-medium-term performance. The backtest data reveals that the 3-day win rate is 49.84%, the 10-day win rate is 50.32%, and the 30-day win rate is 50.81%, indicating a higher probability of a positive return over the short to medium term. The maximum return during the backtest period was 3.47%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that BA can recover from a significant intraday dip to deliver modest gains in the following days.

Critical Juncture: Watch $225 Breakdown or Certification Timelines
Boeing’s near-term fate hinges on two factors: a sustained rebound above $230 to validate Ortberg’s turnaround and regulatory updates on 737 Max certification. The $225 level is a critical support; a break below risks a retest of the 200-day MA at $178.34. Meanwhile, the sector’s focus on U.S.-Japan trade agreements and EU tariffs could provide macro support. Investors should monitor LMT’s -0.58% performance as a barometer for broader aerospace sentiment. Act now: Short-term bulls should target $230, while conservative plays hedge with the $232.5 call. A breakdown below $225 warrants immediate defensive positioning.