Boeing's MAX 10 Delays: A Storm Cloud Over United Airlines' Financial Stability

The aerospace industry is facing a pivotal moment as Boeing’s 737 MAX 10 variant—crucial for airlines seeking long-haul narrowbody capacity—remains mired in delays, with certification still pending as of May 2025. For United Airlines, a key MAX 10 buyer with 165 orders, the prolonged wait has triggered a strategic crisis, forcing costly pivots to Airbus alternatives. This article dissects how supply chain vulnerabilities and Boeing’s execution failures are destabilizing United’s financial outlook, while offering actionable insights for investors seeking to mitigate risk.

The MAX 10’s Certification Quagmire

The MAX 10’s delayed certification stems from two critical hurdles:
1. Technical Fixes: Boeing must resolve FAA concerns over the engine inlet anti-ice system and the SMYD (Stall Management Yaw Damper) software, which require rigorous testing.
2. Supply Chain Logjams: Component shortages, including fasteners for landing gear, have kept production rates below the FAA’s approved ceiling of 38 MAX units/month—a threshold Boeing has yet to meet.

As of April 2025, Boeing held five undelivered MAX 10s, while its inventory of unsold MAX variants swelled to 97 aircraft, including rerouted planes originally destined for China. Analysts at Forecast International project certification delays into 2026, pushing United’s first MAX 10 deliveries to 2027 or later. This timeline amplifies operational and financial risks for airlines betting on the model.

United Airlines: The Cost of Delayed Execution

United’s reliance on the MAX 10 to expand its long-haul routes—particularly in transatlantic and transpacific markets—has backfired. With deliveries delayed by 18–24 months, the airline faces three critical challenges:

1. Higher Costs for Alternatives
   United is now turning to Airbus’s A321neo/A321XLR to fill the gap. While the A321XLR’s 4,700-nautical-mile range outperforms the MAX 10’s 3,100-mile limit, the switch carries penalties:
2. $10–$15 million premium per A321neo purchase compared to MAX 10 pricing.
3. Operational complexity from maintaining a mixed fleet, increasing pilot training and maintenance costs.

1. Route Delays and Revenue Loss
   United had planned to deploy MAX 10s on high-demand routes like New York to Dubai or Chicago to Singapore by 2026. Delays now risk ceding market share to Delta and American Airlines, which have already secured A321XLRs for similar routes.

2. Balance Sheet Strain
   The airline’s $14 billion in debt (as of Q1 2025) leaves little room for unexpected expenses. Analysts warn that the MAX 10 fiasco could widen its cash burn rate, especially if leasing costs for interim aircraft rise.

Ryanair’s Opportunism: A Mirror of Boeing’s Declining Credibility

Ryanair, with 150 MAX 10 orders, has signaled flexibility. CEO Michael O’Leary recently stated, “If Boeing can’t deliver by 2026, we’ll pivot to Airbus.” This stance reflects Boeing’s eroding reputation:

• Supply Chain Reliance Risks: Boeing’s reliance on suppliers like Spirit AeroSystems, which faces its own production bottlenecks, underscores systemic vulnerabilities.
• FAA Scrutiny: The FAA’s ongoing audits of Boeing’s manufacturing quality—triggered by the Alaska Airlines door plug incident—add uncertainty to certification timelines.

Ryanair’s hedging strategy highlights a broader industry shift: airlines are diversifying aircraft portfolios to avoid Boeing dependency.

Investment Implications: Reduce Exposure, Seek Alternatives

Investors should trim positions in United Airlines due to:
- Execution Risk: Delays in fleet modernization could dampen revenue growth.
- Cost Inflation: Higher expenses from A321neo purchases and mixed-fleet operations.

Strategic Alternatives:
1. Airbus (EPA:AIR): Benefit from its A321XLR dominance.

1. Diversified Airlines:
2. Delta Air Lines (DAL): Holds 100 MAX 10 orders but also 30 A321XLRs, reducing single-vendor risk.

3. Lufthansa (LHA): Prioritizes Airbus for its long-haul narrowbody needs.

4. Aero-supply Chain Plays:

5. Spirit AeroSystems (SPR): Leverages Airbus orders, though its own production bottlenecks require close monitoring.

Conclusion: The Write-Off Risk for United

Boeing’s MAX 10 delays are not just a technical setback—they’re a financial time bomb for United. With Airbus capitalizing on Boeing’s missteps and airlines like Ryanair demanding accountability, investors must act decisively. Reduce exposure to United while tilting toward companies with diversified aircraft strategies or direct exposure to Boeing’s competitors. The MAX 10 saga isn’t just about planes—it’s about the survival of airlines betting on Boeing’s ability to deliver.

Investors should consult financial advisors before making portfolio changes. This analysis is based on publicly available data as of May 2025.