Boeing's 2024 Production Struggles: Can It Close the Gap with Airbus and Meet Long-Term Demand?

The global commercial aviation industry in 2024 witnessed a stark divergence in performance between Boeing and Airbus. While Airbus delivered 766 aircraft, maintaining its dominance in the market, Boeing delivered just 333, a figure representing its lowest market share since the 737 Max grounding in 2019 according to flight data. This 2:1 gap raises critical questions for investors: Can Boeing realistically close this deficit, and is its production strategy aligned with long-term demand forecasts?

2024 Performance: A Tale of Two Giants

Airbus's 2024 success was underpinned by its A320 family, which accounted for 602 deliveries, and a growing A220 program, which saw 75 aircraft delivered. Meanwhile, Boeing's 737 Max production, stabilized at 38 aircraft per month, was hampered by the Alaska Airlines incident in 2024 and a machinists' strike. The 787 Dreamliner, Boeing's other major narrowbody, saw production rise to seven per month but remains below Airbus's A350 output according to industry reports.

According to Reuters, Airbus's year-to-date 2025 deliveries (507 as of September) already exceeded Boeing's full-year 2024 total. To meet its 2025 target of 820 aircraft, Airbus must average 117 deliveries per month in November and December-a daunting but achievable goal given its recent September performance of 70 aircraft according to data. Boeing, by contrast, aims for 590 deliveries in 2025, requiring an average of 49 aircraft per month according to forecast data.

Production Rate Increases: A Gradual Climb

Boeing has outlined a phased production ramp-up for its 737 Max, targeting 42 aircraft per month by late 2025 and 52 by mid-2026. For the 787, it plans to reach eight aircraft per month by 2025 and ten by 2026 according to manufacturing reports. However, these increases hinge on resolving supply chain bottlenecks, particularly for components like aircraft seats. Airbus, meanwhile, aims for 75 A320neos per month by 2027 and 12 A220s by 2026 according to market forecasts, though it currently produces 58 A320neos and six A350s per month according to Airbus data.

The disparity in production scalability is stark. According to Airbus reports, Airbus's A320neo program, with its modular design and global supplier network, has proven more resilient to disruptions than Boeing's 737 Max, which still grapples with post-accident regulatory scrutiny.

Supply Chain and Quality Control: A Double-Edged Sword

Boeing's recent "war on defects" initiative, launched after the 2024 Alaska Airlines incident, has reduced traveled work by 75% and simplified technical documentation. The company has also invested $455 million in compliance programs and implemented RFID tool control systems. While these measures have earned cautious approval from regulators, skeptics argue that Boeing's long-term commitment to quality remains unproven according to industry analysis.

Airbus, meanwhile, has faced its own challenges, including delays in A350 production. However, its more diversified supply chain and focus on automation have allowed it to maintain a steadier output according to Airbus data. For Boeing, the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems for $4.7 billion-a move aimed at strengthening its supply chain-comes with regulatory conditions, including asset divestitures to Airbus according to acquisition reports.

Long-Term Demand: A Shared Horizon

Both Airbus and Boeing project a need for nearly 44,000 new aircraft between 2025 and 2044 according to industry forecasts. Airbus's Global Market Forecast emphasizes single-aisle demand (34,250 aircraft) and freighter growth (2,605 new deliveries), driven by Asia-Pacific and North America according to market analysis. Boeing's forecast aligns closely, though it underscores the importance of fleet modernization, with 18,930 aircraft needed to replace older models according to Boeing projections.

For Boeing to meet these forecasts, it must not only close its current production gap with Airbus but also accelerate its rate increases. According to Airbus forecasts, Airbus's 2025-2044 target of 75 A320neos per month would require annual deliveries of 900 aircraft-a level Boeing has not approached since the 737 Max crisis.

Feasibility of Closing the Gap

The arithmetic is daunting. To match Airbus's 2025 production rate of 73 aircraft per month, Boeing would need to double its current 38-plane-per-month 737 Max output while simultaneously scaling up 787 production. Even if Boeing achieves its 2026 target of 52 737 Max aircraft per month, it would still lag behind Airbus's A320neo rate according to production data.

Moreover, Boeing's recent history of production delays-exacerbated by supply chain fragility and regulatory hurdles-casts doubt on its ability to sustain rapid growth. According to Airbus reports, Airbus's more agile production model and stronger supplier relationships give it a structural advantage.

Conclusion: A Race Against Time

Boeing's 2024 performance underscores a widening gap with Airbus, driven by production bottlenecks and quality control challenges. While its planned production increases and supply chain investments are steps in the right direction, the company faces an uphill battle to meet long-term demand forecasts. For investors, the key risks lie in Boeing's ability to execute its ramp-up strategy without compromising quality and in its capacity to compete with Airbus's more scalable production model. The next 18 months will be critical: if Boeing fails to stabilize its 737 Max rate at 42 per month by late 2025, the gap may become insurmountable.