Boeing 2011 Warning May Offer Clues Into November's UPS Crash

Boeing Co. issued a service letter in 2011 warning operators about a key structural component that later failed in the plane involved in the November 2025 United Parcel Service Inc. freighter crash. The component, known as the spherical bearing race, is designed to relieve high loads and vibrations.

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) recently shared a rare update between its preliminary and final investigation reports. It noted the 2011 letter emphasized the inspection of this part as part of a structure securing the engine on the MD-11 aircraft.

The NTSB is now evaluating how this warning was incorporated into Boeing's maintenance manuals and whether UPS implemented the required procedures. Boeing and UPS have not yet commented on the ongoing investigation.

Why Did This Happen?

The spherical bearing race is a critical component in aircraft design. Its failure can lead to catastrophic structural issues, particularly under stress from high loads or vibrations.

The NTSB has pointed out that the 2011 service letter indicated prior failures of this part. This suggests the risk was known to Boeing at the time.

Understanding the cause of the November crash may involve assessing whether the warnings were followed. Investigators are focusing on Boeing's documentation and UPS's compliance with maintenance protocols.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The NTSB's findings could influence Boeing's reputation and regulatory oversight of its aircraft. The company has faced previous challenges related to structural and safety issues, including the 2019 Ethiopian Airlines crash.

The aviation maintenance and repair industry is also under scrutiny. With a $6.5 billion market value in 2026, industry participants are focused on supply chain efficiency and automation trends.

Investors are monitoring Boeing's earnings and its ability to improve its financial outlook. The company is projected to report earnings on January 27, with a revenue forecast of $22.17 billion for December 2025.

What Is the Current Market Outlook?

UPS's recent earnings reflect strong performance, with Q3 2025 earnings of $1.74 per share surpassing estimates by 33.85%. Its revenue reached $21.4 billion.

UPS has maintained a consistent dividend policy. The company distributed $1.64 per share in its most recent quarterly dividend in November 2025, reflecting a 6.83% yield.

The NLRB has ruled that UPS's policy limiting recording devices in the workplace does not violate labor laws. This decision could impact broader workplace policies for other logistics and transportation companies.

The aviation MRO logistics market is expected to grow, reaching $8.17 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.9%.

Boeing's financial performance has been mixed, with losses in recent quarters. However, the company has a strong commercial backlog of $522 billion, supporting long-term revenue expectations.

Investors are advised to monitor Boeing's regulatory compliance, earnings reports, and the NTSB's final investigation into the UPS crash. These factors will likely influence the company's stock price and broader market sentiment.