BNY's $3.6T Stablecoin Forecast Hinges on Regulatory and Institutional Alignment

BNY Mellon has projected that stablecoins and tokenized cash instruments could reach a market size of $3.6 trillion by 2030, driven by institutional adoption and regulatory advancements, according to a November 10 report from CoinDesk. The forecast, outlined in a November 10 report, envisions stablecoins alone hitting $1.5 trillion, with tokenized deposits and money market funds (MMFs) contributing the remaining $2.1 trillion. The bank emphasized that blockchain technology would integrate with traditional financial systems rather than replace them, enabling faster settlement, reduced counterparty risk, and improved collateral mobility, as noted in the CoinDesk piece.

Regulatory frameworks are a critical enabler of this growth. The report highlighted the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) legislation and the U.S. GENIUS Act, passed in 2025, as foundational to scaling stablecoin issuance, according to the CoinDesk report. These laws mandate 100% reserve backing for payment stablecoins and establish clear compliance standards, fostering institutional confidence, as noted in the CoinDesk article.

However, challenges remain. If jurisdictions like the UK replicate the Bank of England's restrictive reserve requirements-capping systemic stablecoin holdings-the $3.6 trillion target could falter, according to CryptoSlate.

Institutional participation is another linchpin. BNY noted that large banks issuing tokenized deposits for collateral, repo transactions, and intraday liquidity would be essential for the market to scale beyond a "niche" $400 billion to $800 billion range, as CryptoSlate noted. JPMorgan's recent launch of its dollar-backed stablecoin, JPM Coin (JPMD), on Coinbase's Base network exemplifies this trend. The token enables 24/7, near-instant institutional payments, with plans to expand to other currencies and blockchains, according to a StockTwits article.

Yet, the path to $3.6 trillion is fraught with risks. JPMorgan itself has issued a more cautious outlook, forecasting stablecoin adoption to stall below $500 billion by 2028 without clearer use cases, as CryptoSlate noted. Meanwhile, Sui Foundation's USDsui stablecoin, launched in November, aims to capture yield revenue by leveraging Bridge's custodial infrastructure, aligning with the GENIUS Act's compliance framework, according to InvestorEmpires. The token's integration with high-throughput networks like Base and Solana underscores the need for seamless interoperability between public chains and traditional banking systems, as the InvestorEmpires article noted.

The implications for Bitcoin and Ethereum are nuanced. If 30–50% of stablecoins remain on open public chains, the liquidity pools for crypto derivatives and lending could expand to $450 billion–$750 billion, tightening spreads and reducing volatility, as CryptoSlate noted. However, much of the $3.6 trillion may reside in permissioned chains, where stablecoins are gated by KYC allowlists and cannot interact with decentralized exchanges or lending protocols, according to the CryptoSlate piece. This scenario could reduce structural demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral, favoring tokenized Treasuries and MMFs instead, as CryptoSlate noted.

Ultimately, the success of the stablecoin vision hinges on harmonizing regulatory frameworks, user experience, and infrastructure. As BNY's Carolyn Weinberg noted, the current inflection point could redefine global capital markets-but only if blockchain and traditional systems evolve in tandem, as noted in the CoinDesk report.