BNB/Yen Market Overview: Volatility and Pattern Confirmation in 24-Hour Data

• Price tested a key support near ¥131,500 before rebounding into a bullish reversal pattern.
• Momentum indicators show mixed signals, with RSI in overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback.
• Volatility remains elevated with high volume spikes observed during key breakouts.
• Price has retraced 50% of the previous bearish leg, aligning with key Fibonacci levels.
• A breakout above ¥133,500 could signal a larger trend reversal, while a retest of ¥131,000 could trigger bearish bias.

BNB/Yen (BNBJPY) opened at ¥131,989 on 2025-09-10 12:00 ET, surged to a high of ¥133,567, fell to a low of ¥131,188, and closed at ¥133,337 by 2025-09-11 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 214.1025 units, and turnover reached ¥27,619,749.35.

Structure & Formations

Price formation over the 24-hour period displayed a distinct V-shaped bounce from a critical support level near ¥131,500, followed by a series of bullish reversal candles, including a strong engulfing pattern after the 09:45 ET candle. A key bearish divergence was also seen in the 19:15 ET candle, where price dropped to ¥131,585 on a high-volume bar, failing to hold. A key resistance at ¥132,500 was tested twice but not decisively broken, indicating a cautious bull case. A bullish flag pattern developed around 09:00–10:00 ET, with a strong breakout to ¥133,567 at 10:15 ET.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bullish bias. The 50-period MA is at ¥132,400, while the 20-period is at ¥132,850. For the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is at ¥131,900, the 100-period at ¥131,700, and the 200-period at ¥130,800, with the closing price comfortably above all three, suggesting a medium-term bullish trend is intact.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained positive for most of the 24-hour window, with a bullish crossover and expanding histogram near the end of the period, indicating growing momentum. RSI reached overbought territory at 72 in the final hours, suggesting a short-term pullback may be imminent. A bearish divergence formed between price and RSI after the 19:15 ET candle, which could indicate a potential reversal point, though it was later negated by a strong rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed MACD crossover and RSI overbought readings, a backtesting strategy could be constructed using a bullish entry above the 15-minute 50-period MA, with a stop-loss placed below the ¥131,500 support and a take-profit target aligned with the ¥133,567 swing high. This setup would aim to capture the continuation of the bullish trend while managing risk via a defined stop.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price moved above ¥132,000, with Bollinger Bands stretching out to capture the ¥133,567 high. Price closed near the upper band, signaling strong bullish momentum. A contraction in the bands was observed between 19:30–20:45 ET, coinciding with a period of consolidation. The recent expansion suggests increased directional movement, with traders likely anticipating a continuation above ¥133,500 or a retest of the ¥131,500 support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during key breakout moments, particularly at 10:15 ET, where ¥133,567 was reached on a large 7.5974-unit trade. Turnover increased by over 100% in the final 30 minutes, reflecting growing interest from larger participants. Notably, there was a divergence in volume during the 19:15–20:45 ET consolidation phase, where price continued to fall but volume declined, hinting at waning bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 50% Fibonacci retracement level (¥132,700) was closely tested during the 05:30–06:00 ET period, with price rebounding and surging higher. The most recent bearish leg from ¥133,567 to ¥131,188 has a 61.8% retracement level at ¥132,400, where price found support and began a strong rebound. A break above ¥133,567 could target ¥134,400 as a potential extension, while a retest of the 38.2% level at ¥132,000 may see renewed short-term bearish activity.

Looking ahead, BNB/Yen appears poised for a key decision phase. A sustained break above ¥133,567 could trigger a bullish extension toward ¥134,400, but a retest of the ¥132,000–131,500 zone may see profit-taking. Traders should remain cautious around ¥131,500 as a potential support level and watch for confirmation on the 15-minute MACD and RSI to avoid false breakouts.