BNB/Yen Market Overview – 2025-10-14

• BNB/Yen (BNBJPY) declined 9.6% over the last 24 hours amid heightened volatility and bearish momentum.
• Price broke below the 15-minute 20SMA and tested key support near ¥175,000.
• RSI entered oversold territory (<30), suggesting potential for a near-term rebound.
• Volatility expanded during the Asian session, with volume spiking near ¥180,000.
• A bullish reversal pattern emerged near ¥181,000, but confirmation remains pending.

BNB/Yen (ticker: BNBJSY) opened at ¥194,453 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥181,635 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range spanned from ¥197,747 (high) to ¥174,523 (low). Total traded volume was 999.25 BNB, with a notional turnover of ¥183,553,123.

Price action unfolded in a distinct bearish trend, with a sharp decline unfolding after the Asian open. The 15-minute 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, reinforcing the downward momentum. On the 1-hour chart, the 50SMA at ¥187,000 and the 100SMA near ¥191,000 acted as failed resistances. On the daily chart, the 200SMA remains significantly above the current level (~¥208,000), indicating a long-term bearish bias.

The RSI-14 on the 15-minute chart dived into the oversold zone (<30), hinting at a potential rebound from current levels. The MACD histogram turned negative and remained below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the Asian session, reflecting elevated volatility. Price tested the lower band (~¥175,000) on 10-14, suggesting a possible bounce or further consolidation.

Volume spiked near ¥180,000 and ¥181,000, with divergences appearing between price and turnover. While price continued to fall, turnover showed a relative flattening after 06:00 ET. A potential bullish hammer formed near ¥181,000, but it lacks strong follow-through. Fibonacci retracement levels suggest ¥178,111 (38.2%) and ¥175,044 (61.8%) as possible support zones for the near term.

Key support levels for BNB/Yen now lie at ¥175,000 (lower Bollinger Band), ¥178,111 (38.2% retracement), and ¥175,044 (61.8% retracement). The immediate resistance is near ¥181,000, where a potential bullish reversal pattern could find buyers. The 20SMA and 50SMA on the 15-minute chart continue to trend downward, suggesting the bearish momentum is likely to persist unless a strong reversal occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

To develop a backtesting strategy based on the current price action and indicator readings, we propose the following approach:

1. Ticker Symbol for BNB/JPY Pair:
   If a native BNB-JPY ticker (e.g., “BNBJPY”) exists in the database, it should be used for direct price data. Otherwise, using BNB-USD (BNBUSD.UDC) and cross-exchanging with USD/JPY is an acceptable proxy.

2. RSI-14 Oversold Threshold:
   A standard RSI-14 oversold threshold of 30 is recommended, based on historical consistency and broad usability across multiple timeframes.

The proposed back-test would involve generating 3-day holding signals based on RSI-14 falling below 30, with stop-loss and take-profit levels defined by recent Fibonacci retracement levels. This strategy can be tested from 2022-01-01 to the present to assess performance across different market cycles.