BNB Slips Under $870, Just Days Before Its Biggest Upgrade

BNB Price Trends and the Fermi Hard Fork

BNB has fallen below $870 in early January 2026, signaling a weakening trend ahead of the highly anticipated Fermi hard fork scheduled for January 14 according to LiveBitcoinNews. This dip comes after the token reached a peak of $1,370 in October but has since struggled to maintain upward momentum. The $870 level had previously served as a significant psychological and technical barrier for the token.

The Fermi upgrade is expected to reduce Binance Smart Chain's block interval from 750 milliseconds to 450 milliseconds, a move aimed at enhancing efficiency and competitiveness with rivals like Solana. The upgrade is also expected to introduce new cryptographic tools and improve indexing mechanisms for users.

Historically, major BNB chain upgrades have led to price increases of 15% to 30% in the short term. For instance, the Maxwell fork saw the price jump nearly 19% after implementation. However, the market environment in 2026 is different, with Bitcoin near $90,000 and Ethereum at around $3,100, putting pressure on altcoins like BNB.

Why Did This Happen?

BNB's recent weakness has sparked discussions about a potential "sell the news" scenario. A price drop before a major upgrade can indicate traders are locking in profits ahead of the event. The current price action shows signs of consolidation, with the token now trading near the $818 support level. A break below this level could lead to a further decline toward $790.

The chain currently processes about 222 transactions per second (TPS), but it has the theoretical capacity for 6,349 TPS. This makes it one of the higher throughput chains in the crypto space, though it still lags behind traditional payment systems like Visa.

How Did Markets React?

Despite the price dip, whale activity tells a different story. On-chain data indicates that large holders added $160 million in BNB to their wallets in the last quarter of 2025. This suggests that institutional investors are taking advantage of the lower prices to accumulate more tokens.

Retail sentiment, on the other hand, is more cautious. The Fear & Greed Index for BNB has dipped into the "Fear" zone, reflecting growing concerns among smaller traders about regulatory scrutiny and market volatility. This divergence between whale accumulation and retail fear is often seen before significant price movements.

The disconnect between large and small investors creates an interesting dynamic. If whales continue to absorb supply during the dip, it could lead to a supply shock once the Fermi upgrade activates. This could result in a rapid price rebound if the upgrade is perceived as successful.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Market participants are closely monitoring the $818 support level. If the price fails to hold here, it could trigger a deeper retracement. On the other hand, a successful Fermi hard fork may trigger a short-term price rebound, especially if the market views the upgrade as a major technical improvement.

Analysts are also keeping a close eye on the broader market conditions. The release of new tokens from escrow and ongoing U.S. regulatory discussions could further impact BNB's price dynamics in the coming weeks.

For investors, a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) approach between $820 and $860 is suggested to manage risk. This strategy helps mitigate the impact of a sudden price drop while keeping capital available for future opportunities.

Overall, the coming days leading up to the Fermi hard fork will be crucial in determining the token's short-term trajectory. The upgrade itself will also be a key test of whether the Binance Smart Chain can maintain its relevance in the increasingly competitive blockchain landscape.