BNB News Today: BNB's $1,100 Support Test Could Trigger 30% Drop or Bullish Rebound

Binance Coin (BNB) is under pressure as technical analysts warn of a potential 30% correction following a classic "double top" formation on its price chart. The pattern, which has historically signaled trend exhaustion, emerges amid a $21.75 billion outflow from Binance's centralized exchange and growing scrutiny over the platform's recent margin system exploit.

The double top structure is defined by two failed breakout attempts near the $1,350–$1,375 resistance zone, with a critical neckline support at approximately $1,100. If BNB closes below this level, the pattern would validate a bearish scenario, targeting a decline to $835-a 30% drop from current levels-by late October or early November . Momentum indicators like the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence divergence (MACD) have also turned bearish, with RSI slipping from overbought territory and MACD lines showing a bearish crossover .

Recent events have exacerbated concerns. Binance's internal oracle mispricing triggered a cascade of margin calls on October 10, sparking a $20 billion liquidation event. Some analysts, including Dr. Martin Hiesboeck of Uphold, suspect the incident was a targeted exploit of Binance's Unified Account system, potentially causing up to $1 billion in losses . The exchange has since pledged $283 million in compensation to affected users, but the damage to market confidence persists .

Despite these headwinds, BNB's price remains above key support levels, including the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $1,155 and the 50-day EMA at $1,042. A rebound from these levels could invalidate the double top, allowing bulls to test the $1,350 resistance again . However, the current outflow trend-Binance's seven-day balance remains down $3.69 billion-suggests lingering risk .

Market participants are also monitoring the "L1 wealth effect," where rising BNB prices have driven capital into the BNB Chain ecosystem, mirroring Solana's 2024 rally . While this internal recycling has fueled short-term gains, analysts caution that the cycle will collapse if stablecoin balances decline or capital exits the chain .

Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. BNB's RSI stands at 56.31, indicating neutral to mildly bullish momentum, while the MACD line's minor positive crossover suggests ongoing buying interest . However, negative funding rates in derivatives markets-currently at -0.015%-signal growing bearish sentiment among traders .

The path forward hinges on BNB's ability to hold above $1,100. A successful defense could reignite the bullish trend, with $1,416 as the next major resistance. Conversely, a breakdown would likely trigger a test of the 50-day EMA at $730–$750, with further downside to $1,050–$1,100 if that fails .

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[2] BNB/USD Binance Historical Data - Investing.com (https://www.investing.com/crypto/bnb/bnb-usd-historical-data)

[3] Binance Coin (BNB) Historical Prices | CoinLore (https://www.coinlore.com/coin/binance-coin/historical-data)

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[5] BNB price analysis: 'Double top' setup warns of 30% drop ahead (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bnb-price-analysis-double-top-warns-30-percent-drop)

[6] BNB News: 'L1 Wealth Effect' Drives BNB Ecosystem (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/10/distribution-is-the-key-bnb-s-129-rally-mirrors-solana-s-2024-surge)

[7] BNB Price Soars 17% As Binance Compensates Users (https://insidebitcoins.com/news/bnb-price-prediction-as-binance-pays-283m-in-compensation-to-users-hit-by-flash-crash-depegs)

[8] BNB Price New Peak Could Be a Bull Trap - Here's Why (https://beincrypto.com/bnb-price-faces-bearish-reversal-signals/)

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[10] BNB Price Trends and Analysis: What Investors Need ... (https://www.analyticsinsight.net/cryptocurrency-analytics-insight/bnb-price-trends-and-analysis-what-investors-need-to-know)