BNB/Argentine Peso (BNBARS) Market Overview – October 4, 2025

• BNB/Argentine Peso (BNBARS) fluctuated within a broad range today, with intraday volatility peaking above 1.8 million ARS.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed in early evening hours, followed by a consolidation phase near resistance at 1.816 million ARS.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions during the late-night rally, while volume remained relatively muted during key directional shifts.
• Price closed near the 24-hour low, suggesting bearish pressure emerged after a failed breakout above 1.816 million ARS.

Market Summary and Structure

BNB/Argentine Peso (BNBARS) opened at 1,753,094 ARS at 12:00 ET on October 3, 2025, reached a high of 1,816,540 ARS at 00:24 ET on October 4, and closed at 1,758,699 ARS at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour volume was 14.45 million BNB, while notional turnover totaled approximately 25.92 billion ARS.

Price action was characterized by an initial rally in the early evening (ET), marked by a bullish engulfing pattern following a session low of 1,752,168 ARS. This was followed by a consolidation phase, with price failing to hold above 1.816 million ARS, a prior high from the overnight session. Key support levels appear to reside around 1.76 million ARS and 1.74 million ARS, while resistance is found at 1.79 million ARS and 1.816 million ARS.

Moving Averages and Trend Context

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA and 50-period SMA crossed into a bullish alignment during the late-night rally, but the 50-SMA quickly diverged downward as the price reversed. On a broader scale, the 50-period daily SMA currently resides near 1.77 million ARS, while the 100- and 200-period SMAs sit at 1.76 million and 1.75 million ARS respectively, suggesting a neutral to slightly bearish bias.

Momentum and Volatility Indicators

Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached overbought territory above 70 during the 00:24 ET peak at 1.816 million ARS but failed to sustain the move, indicating weak follow-through buying. MACD lines showed a bullish crossover in the early morning hours but quickly flattened as momentum waned.

Volatility expanded during the late-night and early morning hours, with Bollinger Bands widening to over 140,000 ARS, followed by a contraction as price settled into a consolidation phase. Price currently sits near the middle band, suggesting a continuation of range-bound behavior.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 1.74 million ARS to 1.816 million ARS, the 38.2% retracement level is at 1.774 million ARS and the 61.8% level is at 1.757 million ARS, closely matching the 24-hour close. This suggests a potential support floor as the market continues to test lower levels.

Volume and Turnover Divergences

Volume spiked during the late-night rally, with a notable increase in activity above 1.79 million ARS, but declined significantly during the subsequent reversal. This divergence between price and volume suggests bearish exhaustion. Notional turnover also spiked during the peak at 1.816 million ARS but dropped sharply afterward, reinforcing the idea that the bullish momentum was not supported by strong buyer conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the identified Fibonacci levels and key moving average crossings during the rally, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a long position upon a bullish crossover of the 20- and 50-period SMAs and exiting upon a bearish divergence in RSI above 70. Alternatively, a short bias could be considered on a break of the 1.76 million ARS support level with confirmation from a bearish MACD crossover. Both strategies would require tight stop-losses due to the high volatility and frequent consolidation seen during the session.