BMO Capital Maintains Buy Rating for Ero Copper with $27 Price Target

Ero Copper has received a Buy rating from BMO Capital's Matt Murphy, with a price target of C$27.00. Murphy is a 5-star analyst with a 68.20% success rate. Additionally, Bank of America Securities's Guilherme Rosito has also given Ero Copper a Buy rating. Ero Copper's market cap is $1.4B and P/E ratio is 74.61.

Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) reported strong second-quarter (Q2) 2025 results, with record-high copper and gold production, despite missing revenue estimates. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.46 beat the mean analyst expectation of $0.41 [2].

Record Production and Revenue Growth

Ero Copper's consolidated copper production reached 15,513 tonnes in Q2 2025, marking a new record and reflecting the ramp-up of the Tucumã Operation and higher grades at the Caraíba Operations [1]. Gold production increased by 17% to 7,743 ounces, with average C1 cash costs and All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) of $1,115 and $2,234 per ounce, respectively [1].

Revenue for the quarter rose 39.6% to $163.5 million, but it fell short of analyst expectations by $4.27 million [1]. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $82.7 million, narrowly missing the mark of $82.8 million [1].

Guidance Updates

Ero Copper reaffirmed its full-year guidance for Caraíba Operations and updated guidance for Tucumã and Xavantina Operations to reflect H1 2025 performance. Full-year copper production guidance was raised to 67,500 to 80,000 tonnes, with C1 cash costs projected to fall within the lower half of the guidance range [1].

At the Xavantina Operations, full-year gold production guidance was updated to 40,000 to 50,000 ounces, with C1 cash costs and AISC of $850 to $1,000 and $1,800 to $2,000 per ounce, respectively [1]. The company's full-year capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged at $230 to $270 million [1].

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

Analysts remain bullish on Ero Copper, with a current average rating of "buy" and a breakdown of 13 "strong buy" or "buy," 2 "hold," and no "sell" or "strong sell" recommendations [2]. The average consensus recommendation for the specialty mining & metals peer group is also "buy" [2].

Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Ero Copper Corp. is C$26.25, about 28.6% above its last closing price of C$18.75 [2]. BMO Capital's Matt Murphy, a 5-star analyst with a 68.20% success rate, has given Ero Copper a Buy rating with a price target of C$27.00 [3]. Bank of America Securities' Guilherme Rosito has also given Ero Copper a Buy rating [3].

Market Performance

Ero Copper's shares closed at C$18.75 after the Q2 2025 results, with analysts' median price target pointing 29% higher at C$26.25. The stock is trading at a next-12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 6, up from last quarter but still seen as compelling versus other metals players [3].

References

[1] https://seekingalpha.com/news/4476323-ero-copper-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-updates-fy25-outlook
[2] https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L8N3TT03H:0-ero-copper-corp-reports-results-for-the-quarter-ended-june-30-earnings-summary/
[3] https://finimize.com/content/ero-copper-sets-production-records-but-misses-revenue-estimates