Blue Owl Stock Jumps 4.28% As Technicals Signal Bullish Reversal

Blue Owl (OWL) concluded the latest session at $19.75, posting a 4.28% gain. This analysis integrates multiple technical frameworks to evaluate potential price trajectories and key levels.
Candlestick Theory
The recent session formed a robust bullish candle with a close near the high ($19.75 vs. high of $19.92), signaling strong buying pressure. This follows a bearish candle on 2025-08-07 that closed near its low ($18.94), suggesting a possible bullish reversal. Key support resides near $18.85 – tested repeatedly in early August – while resistance emerges at $20.00, a psychological barrier that capped advances in late July. A confirmed close above $20.00 would invalidate this resistance.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (approximately $19.50) aligns with recent resistance, while the 100-day MA ($19.00) reinforced support during early August pullbacks. The 200-day MA ($18.20) maintains an upward slope, confirming the longer-term uptrend. The price currently trades above all three MAs, though the 50-day’s flat slope suggests near-term consolidation. A sustained break above the 50-day MA may signal renewed bullish momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows diminishing bearish momentum, nearing a bullish crossover as the signal line flattens. KDJ readings recently exited oversold territory (K: 25, D: 20 on 2025-08-01), with the %K line crossing above %D, suggesting strengthening short-term momentum. However, both oscillators remain below neutral levels, warranting confirmation from price action for a definitive reversal signal.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Band width contracted sharply during July’s consolidation, with the price recently rebounding from the lower band ($18.80). The latest close near the 20-period moving average ($19.45) indicates reduced selling pressure. Band expansion on 2025-08-08’s rally may foreshadow increased volatility. A sustained move above the midline could signal a shift toward bullish territory.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 4.28% surge on 2025-08-08 occurred on elevated volume (8.84M shares vs. 30-day avg ~6.5M), supporting the breakout’s validity. Notable distribution occurred on 2025-08-01 (-2.64% on 12.14M shares), but subsequent lower-volume declines suggest weakening sell pressure. Recent volume patterns align with bullish price action, though confirmation requires continued accumulation above $19.50.
Relative Strength Index
RSI (14-period) rebounded from near-oversold levels (32 on 2025-08-01) to 55 currently, reflecting improving momentum. While approaching neutral territory, the absence of overbought conditions (current RSI < 70) leaves room for upside. The bullish divergence in early August (higher RSI lows against lower price lows) signaled weakening downward momentum, reinforcing the current rebound.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the March-July upswing ($16.11 low to $20.80 high) reveals confluence near $19.00. The 50% retracement ($18.45) underpinned the August pullback, while the 38.2% level ($19.20) now acts as immediate support. The 61.8% retracement ($20.00) aligns with horizontal resistance, creating a technical inflection point. The rebound from the 50% level suggests the overall uptrend remains intact.
Confluence & Divergence
Strong confluence exists at $19.00-19.20, combining the 100-day MA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, and volume-weighted support. The RSI’s bullish divergence in early August preceded the current rally, while MACD/KDJ alignment supports near-term upside. A notable divergence emerged in late July when price reached $20.80 with declining volume and flat MACD, foreshadowing the subsequent correction. Current indicator alignment suggests the path of least resistance is upward, contingent on a decisive breach of $20.00 resistance.
Probabilistic Summary: Technical conditions favor continued near-term upside toward $20.00 resistance, bolstered by volume confirmation and multi-indicator alignment. However, the 50-day MA’s resistance and overhanging supply near $20.00 may trigger consolidation. A sustained break above $20.20 would target the year-to-date high ($20.80), while failure to hold $19.00 could retest the 200-day MA. Traders should monitor volume trends and RSI for overextensions beyond the $20.00 pivot.