Blue Bird Soars Higher: A Strong Q2 Ahead?

The school bus manufacturer Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is about to take center stage. On May 7, 2025, the company will release its Q2 2025 earnings report, and investors are buzzing. Analysts are forecasting a 12.7% jump in earnings per share (EPS) to $1.03, while revenue is expected to hit $371.5 million—a 11.4% surge. This isn’t just a report; it’s a potential catalyst for a stock that’s already primed for takeoff. Let’s dive into why Blue Bird could be a winner in this sector—and why the future looks electric.

The Financials: Flying High

Blue Bird’s Q1 2025 results were a clear win. The company beat EPS estimates by 13.5%, reporting $0.92, and net income rose 9.3% to $28.7 million. Even better? The earnings were boosted by $2.6 million in emission credits, a new revenue stream that highlights the company’s pivot toward sustainability. Analysts are now leaning hard into Blue Bird’s potential: the average price target is $49.50, a 41% premium to current levels, with a Strong Buy consensus from 15 analysts.

But why such optimism? Let’s look at the data:

The chart will show BLBD outperforming the broader market, driven by its electric vehicle (EV) ambitions and strong Q1 results.

The EV Revolution: Blue Bird’s Secret Weapon

The school bus industry is in the middle of a seismic shift—from gas-guzzling buses to zero-emission electric vehicles. Blue Bird isn’t just keeping up—it’s leading. In Q1, the company delivered over 130 electric buses, exceeding internal targets, and now has ~1,000 EVs in its backlog (orders already secured). That’s a 40% jump in orders since late 2024.

The EPA’s Clean School Bus Program is the rocket fuel here. With $3 billion in federal grants already allocated, schools are swapping old buses for EVs. Blue Bird’s CEO, Phil Horlock, has called this a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” and he’s right. The company’s EV Build-up Center—a hub for assembling electric buses—is now humming, and it’s on track to deliver its 1,500th EV by mid-2025.

The Risks? Manageable, Not Dealbreakers

Skeptics will point to hurdles: EVs cost 2–3x more than traditional buses, and charging infrastructure is still catching up. But Blue Bird is innovating around these issues. Partnerships like Zenobē’s “battery-as-a-service” model (leasing batteries to reduce upfront costs) are making EVs affordable. Plus, states like California and Illinois are offering subsidies to offset expenses.

Supply chain disruptions? Blue Bird’s Q1 results show resilience: despite a slight dip in Adjusted EBITDA, margins held steady. The company’s strong balance sheet—$280 million in cash—gives it the flexibility to weather any short-term hiccups.

The Bottom Line: Buy the Bus?

The numbers don’t lie. Blue Bird’s 2025 full-year EPS target of $3.99 (up 15% from 2024) is achievable, especially with its EV backlog growing. The stock’s trailing P/E of 11.9 is a steal compared to the S&P 500’s 23.6. If earnings hit or exceed estimates on May 7, this could be the breakout moment investors have been waiting for.

Final Call: Blue Bird isn’t just a school bus company—it’s a sustainability pioneer. With a $49.50 price target on the table, and the EV market booming, this is a stock to buy now. The risks are real, but the tailwinds—government subsidies, rising demand, and operational execution—are stronger. Strap in, investors—the ride could get bumpy, but the destination looks bright.

Disclosure: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research before investing.