Blue Bird (BLBD) Surges 17.8% on Record Electric Bus Order and $100M Buyback Plan – Is This the New Bull Case?

Summary
• Blue Bird (BLBD) hits 52-week high of $55.70, surging 17.8% intraday
• $9.875M EPA grant funds 25 electric buses for Little Rock School District
• $100M share buyback plan announced, signaling management confidence
• Options frenzy: 20 contracts traded, with 50-strike calls surging 353.57%

Blue Bird’s stock is in a tailwind-driven frenzy, fueled by a landmark electric bus order and a bold buyback plan. The stock’s 17.8% intraday surge—pushing it to a 52-week high—has ignited options activity and positioned the company as a focal point in the clean transportation sector. With a $100M buyback and a $9.875M EPA grant, BLBD’s momentum suggests a strategic shift toward electrification and shareholder value creation.

Record Electric Bus Order and Share Buyback Drive Blue Bird's 17.8% Surge
Blue Bird’s meteoric rise stems from two catalysts: a $9.875M EPA-funded order for 25 electric school buses and a $100M share repurchase plan. The electric bus deal with Little Rock School District, the third-largest in Arkansas, underscores BLBD’s leadership in zero-emission transportation. Meanwhile, the buyback plan signals management’s confidence in undervaluation, with a P/E ratio of 13.56 below its 52-week average. These moves align with broader trends in clean energy adoption and corporate capital allocation, creating a dual tailwind for the stock.

Transportation Equipment Sector Mixed as Oshkosh (OSK) Drags
The Transportation Equipment sector, led by Oshkosh (OSK), is underperforming with a -1.26% intraday decline. While BLBD’s surge is driven by electrification and buybacks, peers like Oshkosh face headwinds from soft demand and margin pressures. This divergence highlights BLBD’s unique positioning in the EV transition, where regulatory tailwinds and grant funding provide a competitive edge over traditional heavy equipment manufacturers.

Options and ETF Plays: Capitalizing on BLBD’s Volatility and Buyback Catalyst
• 200-day average: 39.28 (below current price)
• RSI: 57.53 (neutral)
• MACD: 0.356 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 52.0 (above upper band 46.59)

Blue Bird’s technicals and fundamentals align for a bullish setup. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high of $55.70 and the 200-day support at $41.07. The $100M buyback and EPA grant create a near-term catalyst, while the options chain offers high-leverage plays. Aggressive bulls should consider the BLBD20250815C50 and BLBD20250919C55 options, which balance liquidity, implied volatility, and gamma sensitivity.

Top Option 1: BLBD20250815C50
• Code: BLBD20250815C50
• Type: Call
• Strike: $50
• Expiration: 2025-08-15
• IV: 42.29% (moderate)
• Leverage Ratio: 20.14% (high)
• Delta: 0.734 (high sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.2296 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0951 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: $504,189 (liquid)

This contract offers explosive upside if BLBD closes above $50 by expiration. With a 353.57% price change ratio, it’s ideal for short-term traders betting on a breakout above the 52-week high. A 5% upside to $54.60 would yield a $4.60 payoff, translating to a 92% return on the $50 strike.

Top Option 2: BLBD20250919C55
• Code: BLBD20250919C55
• Type: Call
• Strike: $55
• Expiration: 2025-09-19
• IV: 36.32% (reasonable)
• Leverage Ratio: 34.18% (high)
• Delta: 0.3635 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.0446 (slow decay)
• Gamma: 0.0573 (moderate sensitivity)
• Turnover: $13,121 (liquid)

This contract balances time decay and gamma, making it suitable for a mid-term hold. A 5% upside to $54.60 would result in a $0.60 payoff, a 109% return on the $55 strike. Its lower delta reduces risk if the stock consolidates post-breakout.

Hook: Aggressive bulls should target BLBD20250815C50 for a 92% return if $55.70 is breached. Conservative traders may prefer BLBD20250919C55 for a 109% return with lower time decay.

Backtest Blue Bird Stock Performance
The backtest of BLBD's performance after an 18% intraday surge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, highlighting the strategy's effectiveness for capturing rapid price appreciation. The 3-Day win rate is 50.42%, the 10-Day win rate is 50.76%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.51%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 10.48%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that while there is volatility, significant gains can be achieved if held for a short-to-medium term.

Blue Bird’s Bull Case Gains Legs – Act Now Before Buyback and EPA Tailwinds Fade
Blue Bird’s 17.8% surge is a textbook example of a catalyst-driven breakout, fueled by electrification demand and a $100M buyback. The stock’s technicals—above 200-day average and bullish MACD—align with its fundamentals, creating a compelling case for near-term gains. While the sector leader Oshkosh (OSK) lags with a -1.26% decline, BLBD’s unique positioning in clean transportation offers asymmetric upside. Investors should prioritize the BLBD20250815C50 option for a high-leverage play on the 52-week high breakout. Watch for a close above $55.70 to confirm the new bull trend.