Blue Bird 2025 Q4 Earnings Record Revenue and 48% Net Income Growth

Blue Bird (BLBD) reported fiscal 2025 Q4 results that exceeded expectations, with revenue rising 16.9% to $409.37 million and net income surging 48.0%. The company reaffirmed its FY2026 guidance, maintaining revenue targets of $1.45–$1.55 billion and adjusted EBITDA forecasts of $210–$230 million. CEO John Wyskiel highlighted operational execution and EV leadership as key drivers of performance.

Revenue

Blue Bird’s total revenue increased by 16.9% to $409.37 million in 2025 Q4, up from $350.21 million in 2024 Q4. This growth was driven by higher bus unit bookings, favorable product mix changes, and cumulative price increases to offset inflationary pressures, including tariffs. The Bus segment, which encompasses design, engineering, and sales of school buses and extended warranties, accounted for $384 million in revenue. The Parts segment, focused on replacement bus parts, contributed the remaining $25.37 million.

Earnings/Net Income

Blue Bird’s EPS rose 49.8% to $1.14 in 2025 Q4 from $0.76 in 2024 Q4, while net income climbed 48.0% to $36.50 million, marking a record high for the fiscal quarter. This reflects the company’s strengthened profitability, with net income reaching its highest level in 11 years. The earnings growth underscores Blue Bird’s ability to navigate tariff-related pricing uncertainty and maintain disciplined cost management.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

The strategy of buying Blue Bird shares after its quarterly revenue drop on the earnings report date and holding for 30 days has historically yielded favorable returns. Over the past three years, this approach generated an average return of 12.5%, with a maximum of 18.7% and a minimum of 6.9%.

CEO Commentary

John Wyskiel, President and CEO, emphasized Blue Bird’s record 2025 performance, noting the company “beat guidance on all metrics” despite tariff-related pricing uncertainty. He highlighted operational execution, disciplined pricing, and leadership in alternative-powered vehicles (Alt Power), with EV demand remaining stable. Strategic priorities include automation in manufacturing to reduce costs and improve competitiveness, alongside investments in projects with “clear and strong returns.”

Guidance

Razvan Radulescu, CFO, outlined fiscal 2026 guidance: revenue of $1.45–$1.55 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $210–$230 million (14.5%–15% margin), and free cash flow of $10–$30 million after $100 million in CapEx for the new plant. The company expects 750–800 EV unit sales, with EV backlog pushing into 2027, and maintained full-year unit guidance of 9,500–9,700. Challenges include tariff uncertainty and material costs, but tailwinds include stable pricing, EPA clean school bus program funds, and a strong replacement cycle.

Additional News

1. Commercial Chassis Expansion: Blue Bird plans to launch a new commercial chassis product by the end of fiscal 2026, with prototypes well-received by customers.

2. EV Backlog Growth: EV backlog increased to 850 units as of Q4, driven by stable federal funding and growing state-level incentive programs.

3. Share Repurchases: The company repurchased $40 million in shares during 2025, reflecting confidence in its financial position and long-term growth prospects.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

Historical data suggests that purchasing Blue Bird shares following a quarterly revenue decline on the earnings report date and holding for 30 days has delivered consistent returns. Over the past three years, the average return from this strategy was 12.5%, with a range of 6.9% to 18.7%. This pattern indicates a profitable approach for investors seeking to capitalize on post-earnings volatility, particularly in light of Blue Bird’s recent performance and guidance reaffirmation. The strategy’s success underscores the company’s resilience in navigating market uncertainties and maintaining strong operational execution.

Guidance

Blue Bird’s fiscal 2026 guidance remains unchanged, with revenue projected at $1.45–$1.55 billion and adjusted EBITDA expected to reach $210–$230 million. The company anticipates a 14.5%–15% EBITDA margin, supported by cost reductions from manufacturing automation and continued demand for alternative-powered vehicles. Free cash flow is forecasted at $10–$30 million, factoring in $100 million in capital expenditures for a new plant. Management emphasized confidence in achieving these targets despite ongoing challenges, including tariff volatility and material costs, by leveraging stable pricing and EPA funding.

Additional News

1. Tariff Mitigation: Blue Bird’s pricing strategy has offset the impact of tariffs, with gross margin expanding 4.1 percentage points to 21% in Q4.

2. EV Sales Momentum: The company sold 901 electric buses in 2025, up from 704 in 2024, reinforcing its leadership in the Alt Power segment.

3. Long-Term Profitability: Blue Bird reiterated its long-term goal of achieving an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16%+ on ~$2 billion in revenue, reflecting optimism about EV growth and operational efficiency.