BLSH’s ‘Prove It’ Quarter: BitLicense + Q3 EBITDA Guide Spark 10% Rally

BLSH’s first earnings report as a public company landed with a cleaner beat-and-raise than the post-IPO tape suggested, and the stock is responding—up roughly 10% after a month that looked like a cautionary tale. The path here hasn’t been dull: shares opened at $68, sprinted to $118, then ground lower into this print near $54. Today’s move is the market’s way of saying the story is shifting from “messy debut” to “credible operating trajectory.”

The quarter itself was better than feared and, more importantly, the outlook recalibrates near-term earnings power. BLSH posted Q2 revenue of $57.0 million, modestly ahead of the $55.8 million consensus, and GAAP EPS of $0.93 versus a –$0.05 expectation. The headline profitability benefited from favorable fair-value items; on an adjusted basis EBITDA was $8.1 million, down from $14.7 million a year ago as operating expenses rose to $48.9 million from $46.0 million. Trading volume hit $179.6 billion (up about 35% year over year), with average daily turnover near $2 billion. The counterweight was take-rate pressure: spreads compressed to 1.3 basis points from 2.6 bps last year—a healthy sign of liquidity depth but a drag on transaction economics if volumes slow.

Two mix shifts stand out. First, Subscription, Services & Other (SS&O) revenue rose 61% sequentially to $32.9 million, expanding its share of the pie and reducing reliance on spreads. Second, the CoinDesk Indices franchise ended the quarter with $41 billion in assets under management, up more than $9 billion quarter over quarter—helpful for recurring fees and brand leverage. Management also flagged tangible product catalysts: the options trading platform is in limited rollout with a full launch targeted for Q4, and the company secured both a New York BitLicense and money transmission license, clearing the way to launch U.S. spot trading and custody for institutional and advanced clients.

Guidance is where the tone turns. For Q3, BLSH expects adjusted revenue of $69–$76 million and adjusted EBITDA of $25–$28 million, implying a sharp sequential profitability ramp even as management guides trading volume down to $133–$142 billion versus Q2’s realized $179.6 billion. That combination—higher revenue and much higher EBITDA on lower volumes—signals confidence in the services mix, cost discipline, and early monetization from U.S. market entry. It’s also the primary reason the stock is bid.

Sell-side reactions echo that read-through. Oppenheimer maintained Perform but highlighted the guidance beat, SS&O momentum, and a growing pipeline of partnerships across stablecoin and non-stablecoin issuers. Citi raised its price target to $70 and emphasized operating leverage as U.S. activities scale. The caveat: at roughly 39x one desk’s FY26 EBITDA estimate, the bar isn’t low. Execution now has to keep pace with the multiple.

Key operating markers from the quarter and guide:

• Q2 revenue $57.0M; GAAP EPS $0.93; adjusted EBITDA $8.1M.
• Trading volume $179.6B; spreads/take-rate 1.3 bps (vs. 2.6 bps y/y).
• SS&O revenue $32.9M, +61% q/q; CoinDesk Indices AUM $41B, +$9B q/q.
• Q3 guide: adjusted revenue $69–$76M; adjusted EBITDA $25–$28M; volume $133–$142B.
• Regulatory: BitLicense and NY money transmitter approvals; U.S. spot and custody launch imminent.
• Product: options platform to full launch in Q4; new multi-year partnerships (e.g., Igloo/Pudgy Penguins).

Why the stock is higher isn’t complicated. The guide resets the short-term earnings trajectory upward, the New York approvals de-risk U.S. scaling, and the mix shift toward services adds visibility and lowers cyclicality. Add a high-profile IPO, a successful Consensus conference, and the halo of institutional interest (ARK reportedly bought ~161k shares during the drawdown), and the market finally has reason to price something other than IPO volatility.

That said, the road isn’t free of potholes. Spread compression underscores the competitive intensity of exchange businesses; to defend margins, BLSH either needs sustained volume growth or more revenue from higher-quality, higher-margin services (indices, data, subscriptions, custody, derivatives). The Q2 GAAP beat leaned on marks—by itself not a sin in crypto, but adjusted profitability still has to emerge consistently. Sequentially lower volume guidance introduces execution risk if volatility fades. And at a premium multiple, the tolerance for missteps is limited.

What to track from here:

• U.S. launch KPIs: onboarding pace, custody balances, institutional wallet share, and compliance milestones post-BitLicense.
• Take-rate stability: the balance between incentives, maker/taker mix, and derivatives contribution; any uptick in blended economics would be notable.
• SS&O durability: renewal rates, cross-sell velocity, and margin profile versus pure transaction revenue.
• CoinDesk monetization: fee rates on AUM, new index products, and licensing growth.
• Options rollout: depth/liquidity at launch, how quickly the product contributes to revenue per unit of volume.
• Operating leverage: adjusted opex trajectory relative to revenue; does the Q3 ramp mark the start of sustained margin expansion?

Bottom line: BLSH finally gave investors something sturdy to underwrite—beats on the quarter, a meaningfully better guide, and regulatory progress that opens the U.S. door. The stock’s 10% pop retraces some of the post-spike damage and, more importantly, reframes the debate from “can they scale?” to “how fast can services and U.S. operations thicken margins?” If management executes on mix, take-rate, and product cadence, today’s relief rally can turn into a trend. If not, the IPO roller coaster has a few more twists left.