BLS Accelerates CPI Release to Meet COLA Deadline Despite Shutdown

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is accelerating efforts to release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data by month-end, despite a federal government shutdown that has suspended most of its operations. The delayed report, critical for determining annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustments (COLA), underscores the broader economic implications of the shutdown on financial markets and policy decisions.

The BLS confirmed it has recalled a limited number of staff to finalize the September CPI report, which was originally scheduled for October 15. This action follows directives from the White House Office of Management and Budget, aiming to meet the November 1 deadline for publishing the COLA adjustment. The report's timely release is essential for Social Security recipients, as the COLA-set to take effect in January-relies on third-quarter inflation data. A delay in the CPI report could push back the COLA announcement, affecting over 74 million beneficiaries. Historical precedents, such as the 2013 shutdown that delayed the CPI release by two weeks, highlight the vulnerability of such adjustments to political gridlock.

The Federal Reserve faces heightened uncertainty as the shutdown disrupts access to key economic indicators. The central bank's next policy meeting, scheduled for October 28–29, will occur without the September CPI data, complicating its assessment of inflation trends. While the BLS has already collected price data for the reference month, processing and analysis remain pending. The absence of timely data risks muddying the Fed's decision-making, particularly as policymakers debate further rate cuts in a context of persistently high inflation (2.9% in August) and a softening labor market.

The shutdown has also halted other critical economic reports, including the September jobs report, which was not released on October 3. This data vacuum amplifies the challenges for the Fed and financial markets, which rely on these metrics to gauge economic health. Private-sector data, such as ADP employment figures, offer partial insights but lack the granularity of official reports. Analysts warn that prolonged disruptions could force the Fed to rely on less robust data, increasing the risk of policy missteps.

Historical patterns suggest that government shutdowns typically reduce GDP growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage points per week due to stalled government activity and furloughed workers. The current shutdown, with 750,000 federal employees affected, could exacerbate these effects, particularly if threatened permanent layoffs materialize. While the Treasury Department continues issuing debt, reduced government spending and delayed procurement contracts may further strain economic momentum.

The BLS contingency plan initially outlined a suspension of all operations during the shutdown, with only the commissioner working. However, the agency's pivot to recall staff reflects the high stakes of the CPI report. The data collection phase was completed before the shutdown, but processing 80,000 price quotes and weighting them by consumer spending patterns remains labor-intensive. The BLS aims to release the report before the October 28–29 Fed meeting, though the October 15 deadline appears unattainable.

The broader economic and political ramifications of the shutdown underscore the fragility of the U.S. fiscal system. While markets have historically shown resilience-such as the S&P 500's 3.1% gain during the 2013 shutdown-the current environment, marked by elevated inflation and a fragile labor market, heightens the stakes. Prolonged disruptions could erode trust in government data, forcing policymakers and investors to rely on alternative metrics, with potential long-term implications for economic forecasting and regulatory credibility.

[1] Bureau of Labor Statistics Recalls Staff to Prepare CPI Report (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/bls-recalls-staff-to-ready-september-cpi-report-by-month-s-end)

[2] Federal Reserve's Rate-Cutting Outlook Amid Shutdown Uncertainty (https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/09/business/economy/inflation-report-release-shutdown.html)

[3] Impact of Government Shutdown on Social Security COLA and Economic Data (https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/09/business/cpi-inflation-data-government-shutdown)